Shooting Guards

All rankings are for 9-cat H2H leagues unless otherwise noted. All player positions are from Yahoo Fantasy Basketball. 

1) Steph Curry (PG/SG) – All of a sudden Steph is a pretty safe first-round pick. Curry has put his ankle woes behind him and played 78 games in back-to-back seasons. Moving away from Mark Jackson’s ISO-heavy offense to Steve Kerr’s ball-movement focused offense means that we may not have seen Steph’s ceiling yet.

2) James Harden (SG/SF) – Post-All-Star break, no player was more valuable than James Harden. With Lin now in Los Angeles, and Beverley not much of a creator, Harden has a very good chance to improve on his already awesome 6.1 APG. Harden averaged 7.4 APG after the break.

3) Kawhi Leonard (SG/SF) – Kawhi’s amazing finals performance was a devastating blow for those hoping to grab him on the cheap in drafts. It may not have been obvious due to his low points (12.8 PPG) but Kawhi did have the breakout many expected last season. Post-All-Star Break, Kawhi posted top-seven value. There’s huge upside here.

4) Kyrie Irving (PG/SG) – Kyrie didn’t live up to his lofty first-round pick status but did finish with second-round value. LeBron caps his upside but he’ll remain a great source of threes (1.7 3PG) and steals (1.5 SPG).

5) Nicolas Batum (SG/SF) – He’s a Swiss Army Knife who is always a part of or on the brink of the one three/one steal/one block club. He’s also coming off a season in which he averaged 7.5 RPG and 5.1 APG. Batum is a great fit for just about any build.

6) Trevor Ariza (SG/SF) – Arguably last season’s biggest surprise, Ariza finds himself taking over Chandler Parson’s role in Houston. His odds of repeating last season’s breakout are high as his minutes will remain in the upper 30’s and he’s going an average paced team (the Wizards finished 18th last season) to last season’s fifth fastest team.

7) Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG) –  Injuries held Bledsoe back last season but we saw flashes of his huge potential with his elite steals (1.6 SPG) and very good FG% for a guard (47.7%). Bledsoe finished just outside of the top-50 despite playing hurt for the majority of the year. The injuries likely played a large role in his disappointing block rate last year (0.3 BPG). Expect a rebound in that category. In his last year in Los Angeles, Bledsoe averaged 1.3 BP36.

8) Goran Dragic (PG/SG) – Similar to Noah, Dragic’s value is heavily dependent on whether or not his teammate can stay healthy. With Bledsoe in the lineup, Dragic was more of a top-50 guy instead of the top-25 player we saw with Bledsoe on the sidelines. The addition of Thomas muddies the waters even further.

9) Kobe Bryant (PG/SG) – Last time Kobe looked like he was slipping, he responded by posting first-round value. However, he wasn’t coming off two serious lower-body injuries. His efficiency will be a big question mark this year and could tank his value, but Mamba is still a good bet for 5 boards and 5 assists every night.

10) Kyle Korver (SG/SF) – He’s going to go way too late in your draft. Korver is the easiest value pick in the entire draft and is coming off back-to-back 38th overall finishes. Reach for him a round early and enjoy the value all year.

11) Klay Thompson (SG/SF) – Klay is primed for a big season with Mark Jackson and his ISO-focused offense out of town. There’s a good chance this is the year he breaks 3.0 3PG. He still won’t give you much in terms of boards and dimes but is a good source of out-of-position blocks (0.5).

12) Wes Matthews (SG/SF) – Matthews’ steals took quite a dip last season (0.9 SPG, down from 1.3 SPG in 2012-2013) but he compensated with improved production across the board. His 2.5 3PG makes him a great target if you missed out on threes in the early rounds.

13) Dwyane Wade (PG/SG) – Wade claims that he plans on playing in over 75 games this season. I’ll believe it when I see it. There were no back-to-backs during the playoffs and by the time the finals came along, Wade looked completely done.

14) Gordon Hayward (SG/SF) – The counting stats were there last season (16.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.4 SPG), but unfortunately the efficiency was not (41.3 FG%). The low FG% was due to Hayward’s 3P% falling off a cliff. After shooting 41.5% from deep in 2012-2013, Hayward only managed to hit 30.4% of his treys last season. Some of that drop is due to the increased defensive attention that comes with stepping into a go-to-scorer role but the drop really seemed like a bit of a fluke. Hayward has shot over 40% from deep in two of his three years in the NBA. If his 3P% normalizes, he’ll improve on that poor FG% as well as his 1.1 3PG.

15) Monta Ellis (PG/SG) – When it comes to taking it through the lane, Monta Ellis have it all. Ellis led the league in both total drives and points scored off drives. This lead to a 4% FG% increase over his 2012-2013 shooting numbers. His 19.0 PPG makes him a great target if you’re trying to catch up in points due to a late draft slot.

16) DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF) – He still can’t shoot the three (0.8 3PG on 30.5% shooting) and he’ll hurt you from the field (42.9 FG%) but his counting stats are finally strong enough to offset those weaknesses. DeMar is a solid mid-round target if your team is hurting from the line (82.4 FT% ON 8.0 FTA).

17) Jimmy Butler (SG/SF) – He couldn’t break 40% from the floor last season but the return of Derrick Rose will help Butler’s shooting woes. His scoring may dip with Rose back in the lineup but his scoring is not why you’re picking him. Few wings give you more on the defensive end (1.9 SPG and 0.5 BPG). Butler is a great target if you are punting FG% (33rd overall last season without FG%).

18) Kevin Martin (SG/SF) – After two down years in Houston and Oklahoma City, K-Mart reclaimed his spot as a elite FT% anchor. Only Durant, Harden, and Dirk had a larger positive impact on the category last season. As always, he’ll be a threat to miss time.

19) George Hill (PG/SG) – With Stephenson in Charlotte, Hill will be once again asked to be Indiana’s primary ball-handler. Expect his assists to be closer to his 2012-2013 numbers (4.7 APG). That’s not a flashy number but it helped Hill post top-45 value in 2012-2013. Hill is also one of the best point guards when it comes to taking care of the ball (1.2 TOPG).

20) Patrick Beverley (PG/SG) – How one feels about Beverley is a good fantasy basketball knowledge litmus test. Ignored by the masses, Beverley quietly put up top-75 value last season and top-60 value over the last three months of the season. He’s not your traditional point guard (2.7 APG) but he does do a lot of things that can help you fantasy team (1.6 3PG, 1.4 SPG, 1.2 TOPG). With Lin gone, he won’t have to look over his shoulder. He’s a bit like Kawhi in that his value is not immediately evident. He’s a great guy to have in your utility spot in roto.

21) JR Smith (SG/SF) – Yes, he’s a knucklehead and yes, he’s going to lose you FG% more than once but Smith is still a useful fantasy player. After a slow start to the year, Smith post top-60 value over the last three months. This was not a fluke, as he posted top-60 value in 2012-2013 as well. If you need threes in the mid-round he’s a good target but watch out for his FT% (65.2%).

22) Jeremy Lin (PG/SG) – Lin is not a very productive player on a per minute basis. Last season he finished outside of the top-200 in per 36 value. The season before, in which he provided top-85 value, he was ranked outside of the top-110. Luckily, he landed in a spot where he should be given all the minutes he can handle. In his one year as a starter in Houston, Lin averaged a very useful 6.1 APG, 1.1 3PG, and 1.6 SPG.

23) Bradley Beal (SG) – It’s just a matter of time before Beal starts dropping 2.5+ 3PG. The question is whether or not he can do that efficiently. Beal only shot 41.9% from the field last season and doesn’t give you much outside of points and threes (3.7 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.0 SPG). Whether or not he can raise his efficiency will determine if he can move into the Klay/Korver/Matthews tier.

24) Danny Green (SG/SF) – Green is a tough player to rank. He’s put up very good full-season numbers (79th overall in 9-cat last season and 59th in 2012-2013) but you never know what you’re going to get on a game-by-game basis thanks to Pop. Draft Green’s 1.9 3PG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.9 BPG with confidence in roto but don’t reach in H2H.

25) Andre Iguodala (SG/SF) – He doesn’t score anymore (9.3 PPG) but he still provides solid across-the-board production (4.7 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.5 SPG). The upside to the scoring decrease is that he now hurts you less from the line (65.2 FT% but on only 2.1 FTA).

26) Victor Oladipo – (PG/SG) – At no point last season was Oladipo anything more than an end-of-the-bench fantasy play. Oladipo finished outside of the top-130 last season despite being given fairly substantive minutes (31.1 MPG). Similar to MCW, he posts flashy counting stats that are dragged down by his efficiency (41.9 FG%, 3.2 TOPG) and his inability to hit the three (0.9 3PG). There’s upside here but expecting Oladipo to jump from barely rosterable to a solid mid-round is asking quite a bit. His current 5th round ADP is paying for his ceiling, something you never want to do during your draft.

27) Jamal Crawford (PG/SG) – Crawford posted top-80 value for the second year in a row and his role remains largely unchanged. His points (18.6 PPG) and threes stand out (2.3 3PG) but he’s also a sneaky source of assists (3.2 APG) and had a top-12 positive impact on FT% last season.

28) Reggie Jackson (PG/SG) – It was hardly a surprise that Jackson provided mid-round fantasy value when Russell Westbrook was out of the lineup. What was a surprise was that he was very effective even with Westbrook in the lineup. Over the last three months of the season, Jackson posted top-80 value thanks to his 1.1 3PG, 4.5 APG, 1.2 SPG and underrated FT% impact (89.3 FT% on 2.2 FTA).

29) Lance Stephenson (SG/SF) – Despite the impressive counting stats (13.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.6 APG) and solid shooting from the floor (49.1 FG%), Lance still couldn’t break the top-100 last season. He’s an overrated fantasy player thanks to his lack of defensive stats (0.7 SPG, 0.1 BPG) and his poor free throw shooting (71.1 FT%). Expect his usage and in turn his counting stats to go down now that he is playing next to a true point.

30) JJ Redick (SG) – JJ was great in his first year in a Clipper uniform and posted top-65 value. He’s a solid late pick if you’re looking for points (15.2 PPG), threes (2.1 3PG) and FT% impact (91.5 FT% on 3.0 FTA).

31) Joe Johnson (SG/SF) – His role should increase with Pierce and Livingston gone. He doesn’t give you anything on the defensive end (0.6 SPG, 0.1 BPG) and isn’t asked to create as much these days (2.7 APG). Still, he’ll be a solid source of points (15.8 PPG) and one of the best three-point threats in the game (2.1 3PG).

32) Wilson Chandler (SG/SF) – Last season, Chandler did what he always does. Show some flashes and get hurt. He’ll score (13.6 PPG), and hit a couple threes a night (2.0 3PG), but that efficiency is ugly (41.6 FG%, 72.4 FT%). The blocks that once made him so intriguing are largely gone as well (0.4 BPG over the last two seasons).

33) Jeff Green (SG/SF) – Yet another player who is overrated due to his PPG (16.9). Green only posted positive value in three categories last season (points, threes, and FT%). He’ll be the main option in Boston once again and that means another year of big scoring numbers on poor efficiency (41.2 FG%). Green will also drag down your steals (0.7 SPG).

34) PJ Tucker (SG/SF) – He’s the best defender on the Suns and is locked into a major role. He’s another solid late-round target for those punting points. He’s an above average rebounder for his position (6.5 RPG) and will be a nice source of swipes (1.4 SPG). Tucker is suspended for the first three games of the season due to an off-season DUI.

35) Brandon Knight (PG/SG) – Knight was a player I missed on last season. After awful rookie and sophmore campaigns, Knight broke out in Milwaukee and posted top-105 value that included 17.9 PPG, 1.5 3PG, and 4.9 APG. I don’t expect a repeat with Jason Kidd and his circus rotations in town. The addition of Jabari Parker should also bring down Knight’s flashy PPG.

36) Wes Johnson (SG/SF) – Playing Swaggy P along side Kobe is not a good idea and could possibly rip a hole in the space-time continuum. Expect Johnson to start again. Last season, Johnson was a member of the one three/one steal/one block club and should come close to renewing his membership this coming season.

37) Vince Carter (SG/SF) – With the Grizzlies starved for offense, Vince could once again provide sneaky value. Vince was a top-60 player on a per 36 basis last season so he doesn’t need more than 25 MPG to be valuable. He won’t score efficiently (40.7 FG%) but should hit 1.5+ treys a night.

38) Terrence Ross (SG/SF) – At this point in his career, Ross is only a three-point specialist (2.0 3PG). Those threes will keep him rosterable, but there’s no signs of him providing value outside of threes and scoring (3.1 RPG, 0.8 SPG). James Johnson could push Ross for minutes.

39) Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF) – The Giannis hype train is rolling but I will not be buying a ticket. Unfortunately, highlight reel blocks are not a category in fantasy. From a fantasy perspective, there’s nothing in the numbers that suggests a breakout to mid-round value. Giannis was the 234th ranked player over the last three months of the season and was even worse on a per 36 basis (274th over that same period). There’s potential for some nice defensive stats this year (0.8 SPG, 0.8 BPG) but the Greek Freak would have to take a massive jump on the offensive end to provide more than late-round value (6.8 PPG, 0.5 3PG, 41.4 FG%, 68.3 FT%).

40) Tyreke Evans (SG/SF) – Tyreke is only useful when the ball is in his hands. Unfortunately with Jrue back and healthy, and Gordon being a high-usage player, that likely won’t happen this season. Despite some impressive popcorn numbers (14.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.0 APG) Tyreke still couldn’t break the top-130 last season thanks to his poor efficiency (43.6 FG%, 77.1 FT%, 2.4 TOPG) and complete lack of three-point shooting (0.3 3PG). Let the casual players in your draft over-draft him.

41) Gerald Green (SG/SF) – Green’s minutes should be squeezed with the arrival of Isaiah Thomas. Don’t expect 15.8 PPG again but he’ll still be a useful three-point specialist (2.5 3PG).

42) Manu Ginobli (SG/SF) – From a fantasy perspective he’s still elite when he’s on the court (19th overall on a per 36 basis last season) but in addition to the usual high amount of missed games, Manu’s minutes continue to trend downward (22.3 MPG). He’s a better pick in roto where you can pick your spots with him and take advantage of his 12.3 PPG, 1.3 3PG, and 4.3 APG.

43) Mike Dunleavy (SG/SF) – Dougie Buckets looked great in summer league and with how desperate Chicago is for scoring, I expect him to crack the rotation. However, Dunleavy is still expected to start and should once again be a nice source of points (11.3 PPG) and threes (1.5 3PG).

44) Eric Gordon (SG) – The upside just isn’t there anymore. Gordon has regressed since entering the league but is still just as fragile as ever. Gordon will give you solid scoring (15.4 PPG), threes (1.6 3PG), and steals (1.2 SPG) but as long as Jrue and Tyreke are in Pelican uniforms, Gordon is not worth the headache.

45) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG) – KCP has won the starting job by default with Jodie Meeks now out for the first two months of the season. KCP won’t give you what Meeks will, but he should be a good bet for 1.5+ 3PG to go along with a steal. KCP has played well in preseason, averaging 16.7 PPG and 2.5 3PG in his first three games.

46) Avery Bradley (PG/SG) – Unlike Wright, Bradley is a terrible per minute player (204th last season on a per 36 basis). However, it looks like he’ll continue to be fed minutes and will be good for a three and steal a night. For those punting assists and looking for a late-round PG eligible player, Bradley is a decent choice. His career high for assists is 2.1 APG.

47) Randy Foye (PG/SG) – The Afflalo trade ensures that Foye won’t repeat his top-80 finish but you could do worse if you’re looking for a last-round three-point specialist (2.3 3PG). Foye is also a sneaky source of assists (3.5 APG).

 

 

 

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