Point Guards

All rankings are for 9-cat H2H leagues unless otherwise noted. All player positions are from Yahoo Fantasy Basketball. 

1) Steph Curry (PG/SG) – All of a sudden Steph is a pretty safe first-round pick. Curry has put his ankle woes behind him and played 78 games in back-to-back seasons. Moving away from Mark Jackson’s ISO-heavy offense to Steve Kerr’s ball-movement focused offense means that we may not have seen Steph’s ceiling yet.

2) Chris Paul (PG) – Paul, on a per game basis, finished in top three for an incredible seventh season in a row. The last time Paul missed the top 3, Gilbert Arenas, Yao Ming, and Rashard Lewis were posting first-round value. Paul’s going to outperform this ranking on a per game basis but when you’re picking in the top 5, you want to grab someone who is averaging more than 64 games played over the last three seasons.

3) Russell Westbrook (PG) – Expect some near record-breaking usage as long as Durant is out of the lineup. Few players will have more impressive counting stats but watch out for his FG% and turnovers. Both numbers could get really ugly. In 8-cat, I have Westbrook right after Carmelo.

4) Kyle Lowry (PG) – Last season was no fluke. Lowry is one of the best point guards in the league and provided first-round value in extended stretches during his time in Houston. A great target for those punting FG% (42.3 FG%).

5) John Wall (PG) – Wall finally lived up to the hype both in the real world and the fantasy world making his first all-star appearance and finishing just outside of the top-25 in 9-cat. There’s some downside here. Over the last two months of the season, Wall was barely posting top-50 value. The upside is there but I’d shy away from him around the turn.

6) Kyrie Irving (PG/SG) – Kyrie didn’t live up to his lofty first-round pick status but did finish with second-round value. LeBron caps his upside but he’ll remain a great source of threes (1.7 3PG) and steals (1.5 SPG).

7) Mike Conley (PG) – There’s flashier point guards that will be available at this point in the draft, but few steadier. He’s taken on more of the scoring load (17.2 PPG) and if he can get his steals back to close to two a night, he’ll post second round value. His 1.5 SPG last season was his lowest swipe rate since 2009-2010.

8) Damian Lillard (PG) – Another point guard with some downside. Lillard’s final ranking of 29th overall in 9-cat is exaggerated by his impossibly hot shooting start to the season. Over the last three months of the year, Lillard was 48th ranked player in 9-cat. His lack of steals (0.8 SPG) continues to be a serious drag on his value.

9) Ty Lawson (PG) – He’s disappointed two years in a row due to his falling FG%. His breakout 2011-2012 season saw Lawson shoot 48.8% from the floor. Last season Lawson only hit 43.1% of his shots. The return of Gallo should help alleviate some of the pressure on Lawson and even a modest increase to 45-46% FG% should vault Lawson into the top-35.

10) Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG) –  Injuries held Bledsoe back last season but we saw flashes of his huge potential with his elite steals (1.6 SPG) and very good FG% for a guard (47.7%). Bledsoe finished just outside of the top-50 despite playing hurt for the majority of the year. The injuries likely played a large role in his disappointing block rate last year (0.3 BPG). Expect a rebound in that category. In his last year in Los Angeles, Bledsoe averaged 1.3 BP36.

11) Goran Dragic (PG/SG) – Similar to Noah, Dragic’s value is heavily dependent on whether or not his teammate can stay healthy. With Bledsoe in the lineup, Dragic was more of a top-50 guy instead of the top-25 player we saw with Bledsoe on the sidelines. The addition of Thomas muddies the waters even further.

12) Ricky Rubio (PG) – Rubio is still one of the worst shooters ever (38.1 FG%) but outside of Chris Paul, no player gives you a better combination of assists (8.6 APG) and steals (2.3 SPG).

13) Kobe Bryant (PG/SG) – Last time Kobe looked like he was slipping, he responded by posting first-round value. However, he wasn’t coming off two serious lower-body injuries. His efficiency will be a big question mark this year and could tank his value, but Mamba is still a good bet for 5 boards and 5 assists every night.

14) Derrick Rose (PG) – Rose is one of the many risk/reward picks that you’ll have to make a decision on in the middle of the draft. Just remember that his upside, even if perfectly healthy (a HUGE if), isn’t that high in 9-cat. In his MVP season he only finished 17th overall and followed that up by posting third-round value in 2011-2012. This isn’t a Steph Curry situation where the massive injury risk had first-round upside.

15) Deron Williams (PG) – He’s apparently healthier than he has been in years but there’s too many great (and safer) point guards in the league right now to reach for him the third. Deron has only played over 65 games once in the last four years.

16) Kemba Walker (PG) – The steals and FG% will need to rebound at least somewhat for Kemba to break the top 50. Kemba’s steals fell from 1.9 in 2012-2013 to 1.2 in 2013-2014 and his FG% fell from 42.3% to 39.3%. The addition of Lance Stephenson caps his assists upside.

17) Dwyane Wade (PG/SG) – Wade claims that he plans on playing in over 75 games this season. I’ll believe it when I see it. There were no back-to-backs during the playoffs and by the time the finals came along, Wade looked completely done.

18) Monta Ellis (PG/SG) – When it comes to taking it through the lane, Monta Ellis have it all. Ellis led the league in both total drives and points scored off drives. This lead to a 4% FG% increase over his 2012-2013 shooting numbers. His 19.0 PPG makes him a great target if you’re trying to catch up in points due to a late draft slot.

19) Jeff Teague (PG) – Teague had an awful start to the year but really turned it around down the stretch. Over the last two months of the season, Teague posted top-50 value and was even better over the last month of the season when he was a top 30 player. Expect his FG% to rebound this season and be closer to the 46% that he shot from the floor over the last three months of the season.

20) Jose Calderon (PG) – The triangle is not the most point guard-friendly system in the world but in Dallas, Calderon showed that he can be a very solid fantasy asset even if he’s not handling the ball as much as he did in Toronto. Expect 2+ 3PG and 6+ APG. Despite Jose playing 81 games last season, he’ll likely miss his fair share of games.

21) Jrue Holiday (PG) – Despite playing four less minutes and scoring three less points than he did in his All-Star campaign, Jrue actually had a better fantasy season in 2013-2014. Efficiency has never been his strong suit but we saw some encouraging signs in his first year in New Orleans. His FG% and FT% improved from 43.1% and 74.9% respectively to 44.7% and 81%. He’s a much better pick in 8-cat than 9-cat due to his high TOs (3.1 TOPG in 2013-2014 and 3.8 TOPG last season).

22) George Hill (PG/SG) – With Stephenson in Charlotte, Hill will be once again asked to be Indiana’s primary ball-handler. Expect his assists to be closer to his 2012-2013 numbers (4.7 APG). That’s not a flashy number but it helped Hill post top-45 value in 2012-2013. Hill is also one of the best point guards when it comes to taking care of the ball (1.2 TOPG).

23) Rajon Rondo (PG) – Year after year, Rondo gets drafted within the first three rounds despite only having produced top-50 numbers once in his career. He’s a two-category player who will drag down your points, FT%, and TOs. Rondo is one of the most poorly rounded fantasy point guards. Using Rondo’s 2012-2103 (a year in which he posted top 60 value), and taking away his assists place Rondo outside of the top-180. Mike Conley on the other hand, a point guard being drafted in Rondo’s range, still managed to post top-50 value without assists. Rondo may get you three more dimes a night than the other point guards being drafted in the third but those assists aren’t worth the hit on your other categories.

24) Patrick Beverley (PG/SG) – How one feels about Beverley is a good fantasy basketball knowledge litmus test. Ignored by the masses, Beverley quietly put up top-75 value last season and top-60 value over the last three months of the season. He’s not your traditional point guard (2.7 APG) but he does do a lot of things that can help you fantasy team (1.6 3PG, 1.4 SPG, 1.2 TOPG). With Lin gone, he won’t have to look over his shoulder. He’s a bit like Kawhi in that his value is not immediately evident. He’s a great guy to have in your utility spot in roto.

25) Jeremy Lin (PG/SG) – Lin is not a very productive player on a per minute basis. Last season he finished outside of the top-200 in per 36 value. The season before, in which he provided top-85 value, he was ranked outside of the top-110. Luckily, he landed in a spot where he should be given all the minutes he can handle. In his one year as a starter in Houston, Lin averaged a very useful 6.1 APG, 1.1 3PG, and 1.6 SPG.

26) Tony Parker (PG) – After a career year in 2012-2013, Parker had quite a poor season both in the fantasy world and the real world. He finished 119th overall last season and the Spurs were better with him on the bench both during the regular season and the playoffs. I don’t expect Parker to be as bad this season, but know that he will give you next to nothing outside of solid points (16.7 PPG), assists (5.7 APG), and FG% impact (49.9 FG% on 13.4 FGA). Parker’s three-ball (0.4 3PG) and defensive game (0.5 SPG, 0.1 BPG) are non-existent.

27) Mario Chalmers (PG) – Without LeBron and with Wade a good bet to be spending a significant amount of time sitting on the sidelines in some goofy suits, Chalmers will be expected to pick up a lot of the slack. He’s already a very good source of threes (1.2 3PG), steals (1.6 SPG), and even assists these days (4.9 APG). Expect his points, threes, and assists to rise this year. Chalmers is one of my favourite mid-late round targets.

28) Darren Collison (PG) – The last time Collison was a full-time starter he posted top-85 value despite being yanked around by Rick Carlisle. The situation in Sacramento is not ideal with Collison having to play with two huge usage hogs in Cousins and Gay, but it’s hard to pass on a starting point guard this late in the draft. He doesn’t hit the three (the 0.9 3PG he posted last season was a career high) but is a steady source of steals (1.2 SPG) and should push for 5+ APG.

29) Victor Oladipo – (PG/SG) – At no point last season was Oladipo anything more than an end-of-the-bench fantasy play. Oladipo finished outside of the top-130 last season despite being given fairly substantive minutes (31.1 MPG). Similar to MCW, he posts flashy counting stats that are dragged down by his efficiency (41.9 FG%, 3.2 TOPG) and his inability to hit the three (0.9 3PG). There’s upside here but expecting Oladipo to jump from barely rosterable to a solid mid-round is asking quite a bit. His current 5th round ADP is paying for his ceiling, something you never want to do during your draft.

30) Michael Carter-Williams (PG) – MCW’s rookie season was all over the place. At times he looked like an elite fantasy player thanks to his unreal counting stats (6.2 RPG, 6.3 APG, 1.9 SPG, and 0.6 BPG) and at other times looked like a guy who could ruin a fantasy team all on his own (MCW ranked 172nd over the last three months of the season in 9-cat). He’s got a lot of Josh Smith in him. The counting stats will be great but don’t ignore his weaknesses (40.5 FG%, 70.3 FT%, 3.5 TOPG) and take him too early.

31) Jamal Crawford (PG/SG) – Crawford posted top-80 value for the second year in a row and his role remains largely unchanged. His points (18.6 PPG) and threes stand out (2.3 3PG) but he’s also a sneaky source of assists (3.2 APG) and had a top-12 positive impact on FT% last season.

32) Reggie Jackson (PG/SG) – It was hardly a surprise that Jackson provided mid-round fantasy value when Russell Westbrook was out of the lineup. What was a surprise was that he was very effective even with Westbrook in the lineup. Over the last three months of the season, Jackson posted top-80 value thanks to his 1.1 3PG, 4.5 APG, 1.2 SPG and underrated FT% impact (89.3 FT% on 2.2 FTA). Expect Jackson to post mid-round value as long as Durant is out.

33) Isaiah Thomas (PG) – Let’s take a look at IT’s per 36 numbers for last season and 2012-2013 where he finished 32nd and 94th overall respectively.

2013-2014: 21.1 PP36, 1.8 3P36, 3.0 RPG, 6.5 AP36, 1.3 SP36, 3.1 TOP36

2012-2013: 18.6 PP36, 2.0 3P36, 2.7 RP36, 5.4 AP36, 1.1 SP36, 2.4 TOP36

Those are very similar numbers. Thanks to the difference in turnovers, Isaiah was actually a more productive per 36 fantasy asset in 2012-2013 when he finished as the 37th best per 36 player (Thomas finished 45th overall on per 36 basis last season). The improved 2013-2014 full-season rank was almost entirely due to the Thomas playing 34.7 MPG instead of the 26.9 MPG he played in 2012-2013. With Dragic and Bledsoe in front of him, 27 minutes a night might be the most we can expect for Thomas. He would go back to being early-round value if one of the two starters went down but he’ll be more of a top-100 play when both guards are healthy.

34) Brandon Jennings (PG) – After back-to-back top-50 finishes, including a top-20 finish in 2011-2012, Jennings was horrendous in his first year in Detroit. The counting stats were still solid (15.5 PPG, 1.9 3PG, 7.6 APG, 1.3 SPG), but his efficiency decreased across the board (37.3 FG%, 75.1 FT%, 2.7 TOPG). With Stan Van Gundy in town and DJ Augustin behind him, Jennings could see his playing time take a hit. GM Jeff Bauer has already said that the starting point guard spot is up for grabs.

35) Brandon Knight (PG/SG) – Knight was a player I missed on last season. After awful rookie and sophmore campaigns, Knight broke out in Milwaukee and posted top-105 value that included 17.9 PPG, 1.5 3PG, and 4.9 APG. I don’t expect a repeat with Jason Kidd and his circus rotations in town. The addition of Jabari Parker should also bring down Knight’s flashy PPG.

36) Trey Burke (PG) – The concerns about Burke’s size and ability to finish were realized in his rookie year. Burke only shot 38.0% from the field and wasn’t able to break into the top-150 despite putting up 1.6 3PG and 5.7 APG. He should be a good source of both threes and assists once again but watch out for the FG% and his lack of steals (0.6 SPG).

37) Elfrid Payton (PG) – He can’t shoot (25.9 3P% in his last year in college) and as a rookie point guard, he’ll likely turn the ball over quite a bit. However, he has a shot at being a valuable steals specialist (2.3 SPG last season) who chips in 4.5+ assists.

38) Avery Bradley (PG/SG) – Unlike Wright, Bradley is a terrible per minute player (204th last season on a per 36 basis). However, it looks like he’ll continue to be fed minutes and will be good for a three and steal a night. For those punting assists and looking for a late-round PG eligible player, Bradley is a decent choice. His career high for assists is 2.1 APG.

39) DJ Augustin (PG) – It’s not hard to imagine SVG and Jennings clashing. SVG has already called out Jennings for his poor shot selection. We saw what Augustin can do in an extended role last season and it was impressive. Over the last three months of the season Augustin averaged 16.5 PPG, 2.4 3PG, and 4.4 APG.

40) Marcus Smart (PG) – Rondo is out the first 3-10 games of the year and Smart was likely drafted with a future Rondo trade in mind. He’ll struggle badly from the field (42.2 FG% in his last year at Oklahoma State) but has a shot at being near the top of the league in steals (2.9 SPG last season) if he gets extended minutes.

41) Randy Foye (PG/SG) – The Afflalo trade ensures that Foye won’t repeat his top-80 finish but you could do worse if you’re looking for a last-round three-point specialist (2.3 3PG). Foye is also a sneaky source of assists (3.5 APG).

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