Power Fowards

1) Kevin Durant (SF/PF) – Durant’s move to Oakland is bad for the league but good for fantasy. The move brings both Curry and Durant down a notch and makes it easier for those picking later in the draft to compete with the Curry and Durant owners. Like Curry, KD will see a dip in shot attempts and, in turn, his scoring (28.2 PPG). He’s also likely to see his assists decrease (5.0 APG) as he’ll be splitting playmaking duties with both Curry and Draymond Green. The incoming drop in dimes makes Durant a strong contender for the punt assists build. The one concern related to Curry and Durant that I do have is that they are strong candidates for rest during the fantasy playoffs. The Warriors’ quest for 73 wins may have cost them a championship and it’s very likely that Coach Kerr plays it safe down the stretch. However, the Warriors do have an above-average playoff schedule so owners shouldn’t worry too much about potential late-season shenanigans when drafting either stud.

2) Anthony Davis (PF/C) – Davis could finish first overall on a per game basis and no one would be surprised. At this point, the most surprising thing that Davis could do is play 75 games. Since entering the league in 2012, the fragile big man has yet to play in more than 68 games in any season. The Pelicans likely ineptitude doesn’t help matters. With Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon in Houston and Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday likely to miss significant chunks of the season, it’s highly unlikely that the Pelicans will be playing for anything when the fantasy playoffs roll around. If you do decide to gamble on Davis, he is best paired with the punt assists build (1.9 APG).

3) LeBron James (SF/PF) – The King is no longer a contender for the top spot in fantasy, but is a fine consolation prize for those stuck picking at the end of the first round. James continues to be an excellent fit for the punt FT% build due to his struggles at the line (73.1 FT%) and his outstanding assists (6.7 APG) and FG% (52.0 FG%). When punting FT%, you’ll be aiming to win both categories each week and LeBron is one of the few players who provides elite production in both categories. Paring LeBron with either Hassan Whiteside or DeAndre Jordan and punting FT% is one of my favorite options for those picking late.

4) Paul George (SF/PF) – George’s first full season since his devastating leg injury could not have gone better. George posted top-15 per game numbers, but even more importantly, managed to suit up 81 times during the regular season and play 34.8 MPG. The swingman is another great candidate for the punt FG% build as his poor shooting (41.8 FG%) is his most glaring flaw. George provides strong value almost everywhere else, especially in points (23.1 PPG), threes (2.6 3PG), and steals (1.9 SPG). The addition of Jeff Teague, a more natural point guard than departing George Hill, makes it unlikely that George matches the 4.1 APG that he averaged last season. However, Teague’s presence should help get George’s turnovers under control (3.3 TOPG).

5) DeMarcus Cousins (PF/C) – Cousins is a monster when he is on the court, but like Anthony Davis, that is an increasingly rare occurrence. Over the past three seasons, Cousins has missed an average of 17 games, with many of those missed games coming at the end of the fantasy schedule. When he does suit up, Cousins is a dream fit for the punt FG% build (45.1 FG%). Blocks and rebounds are easily the two most difficult categories to find when punting FG% and Cousins delivers both in spades (11.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG). His excellent out-of-position steals (1.6 SPG) and newfound threes (1.1 3PG) will help you dominant two categories that the punt FG% build will be looking to win each week.

6) Paul Millsap (PF/C) – One of the league’s most underrated players finally received the recognition that he’s always deserved. It only took a DPOY-level season and a top-10 fantasy finish. Millsap has only finished outside of the top-25 once in the last six years and has finished in the first round twice over that span. Dwight Howard’s presence should only impact Millsap’s rebounding as Dwight is a better rebounder than Al Horford. A repeat of his top-10 finish is unlikely as the 1.9 BPG he averaged in 2015-2016 is well above his career average, but a top-15 finish is very possible. Millsap comes with a floor higher than many of the players who will likely be available after the first round.

7) LaMarcus Aldridge (PF/C) – After a very slow start to his first year in San Antonio, Aldridge was one of the most valuable players in fantasy over the second half of the season. Aldridge was a top-10 option over the last three months of 2015-2016 and offers one of the cleanest lines in fantasy. Over those three months, the big man averaged a very impressive 20.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, and 1.3 BPG while providing elite percentages (53.9 FG%, 90.2 FT%) impact. Aldridge has finished in the top-15 on a per game basis, five of the past six seasons.

8) Al Horford (PF/C) – Horford is perhaps the least exciting early-round option, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a very strong pick even early in the second round. In his last four healthy seasons, Horford hasn’t finished lower than 17th on a per game basis. Of course, he has never finished higher than 13th over that span, but consistency in the early rounds is extremely important. Having a first or second round pick bust usually leads to a very long season. The move to Boston shouldn’t have a major impact on Horford. Coach Stevens likes to play around with his lineups, but Horford, being the team’s best player, should be immune to any lineup changes. You won’t win any leagues by taking Horford in the second round, but you won’t lose any leagues either.

9) Andre Drummond (PF/C) – Drummond’s fantasy value continues to be dragged down by the Pistons’ attempts to develop his offensive game. He continues to struggle to score efficiently (52.0 FG%) and his disappointing results from the field leave him a level below Hassan Whiteside and DeAndre Jordan when it comes to punt FT% anchors. However, Drummond is a fine consolation prize for those missing out on the more efficient big men due to his league-leading rebounding (14.5 RPG), excellent out-of-position steals (1.5 SPG), and solid blocks (1.4 BPG). If you do decide to punt FT%, target Whiteside and Jordan before Drummond. Having an elite FG% anchor is extremely important when punting FT% as many of the guards that you will need to target later will struggle from the field.

10) Draymond Green (SF/PF) – I hope you enjoyed Draymond’s stunning 7.4 APG last season, because it’s extremely unlikely that he comes anywhere close to that number in 2016-2017. Kevin Durant finished in the top-10 in usage last season and much of Draymond’s offensively responsibility will shift to Durant. That’s not to say he won’t be an elite source of out-of-position dimes, a talent that makes Green an excellent fit for the punt FT% build, but five assists per night is a more reasonable expectation. The drop in assists should come with a dip in turnovers (3.2 APG), and as always, Draymond is a lock to average well over one three, one steal, and one block per night.

11) Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C) – Karl-Anthony Towns was 2015-2016’s most hyped rookie, but Porzingis wasn’t far behind and deservedly so. The Knick is a dream fit for the punt FG% build due to his elite blocks (1.9 BPG) and solid rebounding (7.3 RPG) and fits well into almost any build thanks to his big man stats and his out-of-position threes (1.1 3PG). The addition of Derrick Rose should help Porzingis as the former Bull will demand much more defensive attention than the departing Jose Calderon. Kristaps was a top-30 per minute player last season and has a top-15 ceiling.

12) Serge Ibaka (PF/C) – The move to Orlando should breathe life into Ibaka’s quickly deteriorating fantasy value. Playing beside Nikola Vucevic should allow Ibaka to spend more time defending the rim and less time chasing stretch fours around the perimeter. Expect an increase in his blocks (1.9 BPG) as well as his scoring (12.6 PPG) now that he will no longer be playing beside Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. It’s unlikely that we see Ibaka return to his top-15 ways as the value gained by his love of the three-ball (0.8 3PG) has been more than cancelled out by the corresponding drop in efficiency (47.9 FG%). Ibaka looks like a very strong pick starting in the third round and is a perfect fit for the punt FG% build. His blocks are extremely valuable in that build and his lack of dimes (0.8 APG) and swipes (0.5 SPG) can easily be offset by all the guards who receive boosts when FG% is ignored.

13) Blake Griffin (PF/C)  – Last season was a disaster for Blake. He failed to crack the top-40 on a per game basis and missed over half the season after breaking his hand on an equipment manager’s face. He has missed significant time two seasons in a row, but remains a safe bet to produce early-round value when he is on the court. Despite his improvement from the line (72.7 FT%), Griffin is an excellent fit for the punt FT% build. Blake provides the scoring (21.4 PPG) and out-of-position assists (4.9 APG) that are required to successfully pull off the build.

14) Derrick Favors (PF/C) – Favors has slowly, but steadily, risen up the fantasy rankings and managed to be a top-30 asset in 2015-2016. Favors offensive game has grown considerably over the past two seasons and the power forward should benefit from the addition of George Hill. Favors is an excellent source of big man stats (8.1 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 51.5 FG%) and has improved enough at the line (70.9 FT%) that he is useful outside of the punt FT% build.

15) Carmelo Anthony (SF/PF) – The Knicks’ star is now 32 and is starting to show his age. Carmelo’s numbers have declined the past two seasons and the swingman only provided third-round value in 2015-2016. He’s been battling chronic knee pain for the past two years which is not something that is likely to get better with age. Melo is still a very good source of points (21.8 PPG), threes (1.5 3PG), and rebounds (7.7 RPG), but it’s hard to invest a high pick in a player who always seems to be struggling with injuries.

16) Nikola Vucevic (PF/C) – The concerns surrounding the Magic’s signing of Bismack Biyombo have gotten out of hand and have allowed Vucevic to become a value pick for those drafting early. As long as Vucevic is on the Magic’s roster, he is going to start. A starting lineup of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka, and Bismack Biyombo would be the worst offensive starting lineup in the league. There’s no reason why Vucevic can’t return top-40 value for the fifth year in a row. He’ll still see north of 30 MPG and will continue to be one of the best fits for the punt blocks build (1.1 BPG) due to his proficiency on the boards (8.8 RPG) and efficient scoring (51.0 FG%).

17) Pau Gasol (PF/C) – Gasol is replacing the retiring Tim Duncan and figures to see both his minutes and production drop now that he is in San Antonio. Pau was a top-20 option in Chicago, but likely won’t see more than 28 MPG in his first season in the silver and black. Coach Popovich will want to keep Gasol fresh for the playoffs and he’s likely the odd man out when the Spurs decide to go small. A top-50 per game finish feels very doable, but owners targeting the Spaniard need to accept that that top-50 production will likely come with some ill-timed DNP-OLDs.

18) Kevin Love (PF/C) – There’s been no signs that the Cavaliers intend to increase the former perennial first-round pick’s role and that leaves Love as a solid, yet uninspiring, mid-round pick. Love’s upside isn’t very high due to his role, but the big man will continue to be an excellent source of out-of-position threes (2.1 3PG) and free-throw impact (82.2 FT%). Love is another big man who fits the punt blocks build well (0.5 BPG) as he brings the rebounds (9.9 RPG) that you need to pull off the strategy successfully.

19) Gorgui Dieng (PF/C) – Dieng has an extremely fantasy-friendly game, but as usual, his role is up in the air. The Wolves have been shopping for a power forward and have never fully embraced Dieng as their long-term solution at the four. However, as of now, Dieng is looking like the likely starter at power forward and that would mean big things. Thibodeau relies heavily on starters and if Dieng can hold onto the starting job, he should see an uptick in playing time (27.1 MPG). That means that Dieng, who is coming off of back-to-back, top-55 seasons, has a chance to crack the top-35 in 2016-2017. Gorgui is an very good source of defensive stats (1.1 SPG, 1.2 BPG) and is one of the league’s most efficient big men (53.3 FG%, 82.7 FT%). Those pristine percentages make him one of the best mid-round options for the punt points build.

20) Jae Crowder (SF/PF) – Crowder was another one of 2015-2016’s biggest surprises and posted top-35 numbers that included 1.7 3PG and 1.7 SPG. Crowder was not asked to create much last season so Al Horford’s presence shouldn’t have a major impact on the swingman’s production. Crowder is built in the same mold as Khris Middleton and Trevor Ariza and is best deployed as part of the punt assists build (1.8 APG).

21) Ryan Anderson (PF/C) – Anderson and the Rockets are a match made in heaven. Anderson fits perfectly with what Mike D’Antoni likes to do and feels like a lock to hit at least 2.5 3PM. Anderson has reached that mark three times in his career and each time it resulted in a top-50 finish, including a top-10 finish in 2011-2012. The sharpshooter is an especially good fit punt blocks (0.4 BPG) and punt FG% (42.8%) scenarios.

22) Dirk Nowitzki (PF/C) – The legend continues to defy Father Time and produced yet another top-30 season in 2015-2016. With the Mavericks, once again, looking like a borderline playoff team, Dirk’s minutes should stay north of 30 MPG (31.5 MPG). Coach Carlisle would like to play Nowitzki less, but he simply doesn’t have a choice given the quality of the big German’s teammates. Dirk provides excellent out-of-position threes (1.7 3PG) and FT% impact (89.3 FT% on 3.7 FTA), but his shooting from the field has dropped as his game has become more perimeter oriented (44.8 FG%). Dirk is a solid fit for the punt blocks build (0.7 BPG) and a good, but not great fit, for the punt FG% build. Ideally, you want your punt FG% big men to contribute more than just decent boards (6.5 RPG) and below-average blocks.

23) Chandler Parsons (SF/PF) – Parsons received one of this offseason’s most ridiculous deals, but the versatile forward is a very good fit for a team in desperate need of shooting and playmaking. Parsons’ final 2015-2016 ranking of 80th-overall is deceptive as the small forward was actually an early-round asset over the last three months of the season. Over that span, the former Maverick averaged a very impressive 18.1 PPG on 51.3% shooting, 2.5 3PG, 5.7 RPG, and 3.2 APG. That shooting is unsustainable so don’t expect early-round production from Parsons, but a top-45 finish is possible.

24) Rudy Gay (SF/PF) – The Kings have been tossing around the idea of trading Gay and it’s possible that the swingman has played his last game in a Kings’ jersey. Usually, that level of uncertainty would tank a player’s value, but Gay has proven that he has the ability to provide at least mid-round in any situation. Rudy has been a top-60 option in Memphis, Toronto, and Sacramento. Gay is one of the best sources of points (17.2 PPG) available in the middle rounds and also provides above-average production in the defensive categories (1.4 SPG, 0.7 BPG).

25) Nerlens Noel (PF/C) – Noel is an extremely hard player to rank. The 76ers are reportedly trying to move one of Noel and Jahlil Okafor to free up playing time for top pick Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Noel is the more likely of the two to be moved and his value will be very dependent on where he lands. If it’s a favorable landing spot, Noel could very easily be a top-25 player. He’s shown that type of upside before. A favorable landing spot should be defined as a spot where he can spend most of his time at center. Noel’s offensive game is still in its infancy, and if he is forced to spend significant time at the four, his FG% is likely to take a serious hit (52.1 FG%). Regardless of where he lands, Noel will be one of the league’s best sources of defensive stats (1.8 SPG, 1.5 BPG).

26) Tobias Harris (SF/PF) – Harris hasn’t quite lived up to the sky-high expectations that came with his 2012-2013 late-season breakout, but the Piston has made himself into a dependable mid-round option. Tobias is an efficient scorer (14.7 PPG on 46.9 FG%), a solid rebounder considering who he is playing beside (6.7 RPG), and is a decent source of threes (1.1 3PG) from the power forward position. The Pistons signed Jon Leuer and drafted Henry Ellenson, but neither is a threat to Harris’ minutes.

27) Aaron Gordon (SF/PF) – Serge Ibaka’s arrival and the signing of Bismack Biyombo signals that the Magic are ready to move forward with Aaron Gordon at the three. The Magic don’t really have a go-to option on offense so Gordon’s usage could spike in his third NBA season. Gordon will be on every sleeper list and rightfully so. The high flyer gives you a little bit of everything and has the potential to join the one three/one steal/one block club this season. His only clear weakness is his free-throw shooting (66.8 FT%) which, mercifully, doesn’t come with a high draw rate (3.7 FTA36). Draft Gordon aggressively as you’re likely to have plenty of competition.

28) Thaddeus Young (SF/PF) – The Pacers are planning on picking up the pace and that should keep Thad’s value in the middle rounds as he adjusts to his new teammates. Young has been a top-40 option in three of the past four seasons and currently has little competition for minutes at the four. He produces a unique line and is an excellent fit for the punt blocks build (0.5 BPG) and for anyone in need of elite, out-of-position steals (1.5 SPG). As always, Thad’s FT% will be a mystery. Over the past five seasons, Young has shot as high as 77.1% from the line and as low as 57.4%.

29) Myles Turner (PF/C) – Turner is one of my favorite potential breakout players and looked like a star in the making during the Pacers’ playoff run. The talented young big man was a top-90 player over the last three months of the season despite only playing 26.4 MPG. Over that stretch he averaged 12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 1.7 BPG on 49.7 FG%. Those already very useful numbers, look like Turner’s floor. A top-50 finish is very possible. Al Jefferson is a shell of his former self and will be not a threat to Turner’s minutes.

30) Nikola Mirotic (SF/PF) – Mirotic is the biggest winner of the Bulls’ busy offseason. The additions of Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo leaves the Bulls woefully short on perimeter shooting and essentially forces Coach Hoiberg to start Mirotic at the four and play him heavy minutes. Mirotic was maddeningly inconsistent in 2015-2016, often flashing his early-round potential for a week, and following that week with two weeks of looking like a cut candidate. Despite the awful stretches that seemed to dominate Mirotic’s season, the big man still managed to provide top-90 value on the year because his game is incredibly fantasy friendly. Mirotic was a top-30 per minute player over the last two months of the season and averaged 14.1 PPG, 2.8 3PG, 4.7 RPG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.8 BPG over that span. He is an excellent fit for the punt FG% build (40.7 FG%) due to his poor shooting and his potential on the defensive end.

31) Marvin Williams (SF/PF) – Like Fournier, Williams is ranked outside of the top-200 on Yahoo. That will likely change by the time the season starts, but for now, owners can enjoy a huge discount on a veteran coming off the best season of his career. Williams finished within the top-50 last season and was even better down the stretch. Over the last three months of the season, Marvin was a top-40 player and averaged 2.1 3PG, 6.3 RPG, and 0.8 BPG and shot 47.9% from the field. Williams is an excellent fit for the punt points build and was a top-30 player in that build in 2015-2016.

32) Greg Monroe (PF/C) – The Bucks were defensively challenged in 2015-2016 and much of the blame should go to Monroe. The Bucks’ brass seems to agree and has been trying to move the big man all summer. This ranking reflects the uncertainty surrounding Monroe as he was much better than this in 2015-2016. Last season, Monroe was a top-45 player who scored efficiently (15.3 PPG on 52.2 FG%) and hit the boards hard (8.8 RPG). Monroe’s usually above-average steals disappeared (0.9 SPG), but owners should expect a bounce back in that category as last season was the first time in the former Piston’s career where he didn’t average at least 1.1 SPG.

33) Robert Covington (SF/PF) – Covington is currently the favorite to start at small forward for what should be an improved 76ers team. Coach Brown played around with Covington’s minutes last season, but despite that, the swingman was still able to finish within the top-70 for the second season in a row. Covington is one of the league’s best sources of threes (2.5 3PG) and steals (1.6 3PG) and is a sneaky source of boards as well (6.3 RPG). Make sure you heavy plenty of FG% anchors on you team if you draft Covington. Only a handful of players had a larger negative impact on FG% than Covington did in 2015-2016 (38.5 FG%).

34) Clint Capela (PF/C) – With Dwight Howard now in Atlanta, Capela will have a huge role in what should be an explosive Rockets offense. Capela is a punt FT%-only player (37.9 FT%), but he projects to be a heck of a punt FT%-only player. The big man was a top-20 per minute player in the punt FT% build last season and is one of the best mid-round options for those who went guard heavy early. Capela’s 2015-2016 per minute numbers give us an idea of what to expect this coming season. The Rocket produced 12.1 RP36 and 2.3 BP36 while shooting 58.2% from the field. Those are impressive numbers and any player who can average a double-double with two blocks a night is going to be a very deadly H2H weapon.

35) Dwight Howard (PF/C) – Howard is replacing Al Horford and remains a mid-round option for those punting FT%. The move to Atlanta should be accompanied by usage boost and that should lead to an increase in his shot attempts and scoring (13.7 PPG). Despite having his worst season since his rookie year, Howard was still a top-20 option in the punt FT% build in 2015-2016. He’s no longer an elite option without FT%, but with so many of the ideal punt FT% big men slated to go early in drafts, Dwight is a good option for those going guard heavy early.

36) Ben Simmons (SF/PF) – It’s hard to make any predictions about the Sixers’ rotation while both Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor remain on the roster. One of the two will likely be gone by opening night, with Noel being the big man most likely to be moved. Regardless of who is on the roster on opening night, expect Simmons to be the focal point of the Sixers’ offense. The first-overall pick is an excellent passer for a big man, and the Sixers’ signing of combo guard Jerryd Bayless to start at point sends a strong message that the offense will be run through the rookie. Simmons’ popcorn stats are likely to be very good. In his only year at LSU, the big man averaged an impressive 19.2 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 4.8 APG, 2.0 SPG, and 0.8 BPG. The issue with Simmons, as it is with most rookies, is his efficiency. He shot efficiently from the field in college (56.0 FG%), but with the Sixers lacking scoring threats who can take away defensive attention, the rookie’s FG% will likely be mediocre. Simmons’ free-throw shooting is a much bigger issue. At LSU, the newest Sixer shot 67.0% from the line. That’s not terrible, but what is worrisome is the volume that is likely to accompany the mediocre shooting. Simmons got to the line 9.0 times a night in his freshman year and his ability to draw fouls all but guarantees that he’ll be a serious drag on FT% in his rookie campaign. Simmons is worth a mid-round pick and those punting FT% should aggressively target the rookie. He is an excellent fit for the build, not only due to his poor free-throw shooting, but also due to his outstanding out-of-position dimes and steals, two categories that you’ll be aiming to win consistently when punting FT%.

37) DeMarre Carroll (SF/PF) – Carroll’s first year with the Raptors was ruined by a knee injury that hindered his play all the way through to the Eastern Conference Finals. The swingman should be fully healthy when the season starts and will continue to have a massive role for Dwane Casey’s squad. The Raptors don’t move the ball like the Hawks do, so don’t expect a top-50 finish from Carroll, but he should be able to produce at least top-90 numbers if he can stay healthy. He is a “3-and-D” specialist (1.8 3PG, 1.7 SPG) who best fits into the punt points (11.0 PPG) and punt assist (1.0 APG) builds.

38) Jabari Parker (SF/PF) – The former second-overall pick has completely recovered from his rookie season ACL tear and should improve on his 2015-2016 top-115 finish. Parker got stronger as the year went on and managed to average 18.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 1.1 SPG over the last two months of the season. Jabari’s inability to hit from the outside limits his upside (0.1 3PG), but the Buck is one of the few players available after the early rounds who can produce gaudy scoring numbers while having a positive impact on your FG%.

39) Jared Sullinger (PF/C) – With all the silly deals being thrown at role players this offseason, the Raptors did very well to bring in Sullinger on a $6 million deal. The former Celtic is the heavy favorite to start at the four for the Raptors and should be very motivated as he is only on a one-year deal. Sullinger has apparently lost quite a bit of weight and should see around 30 MPG if his body can hold up. A top-75 finish is very possible. In 2014-2015, Sullinger was a top-50 per minute player thanks to his ability to contribute across the board. The big man is an especially good fit for those punting FG% (43.5%). Expect his FT% to bounce back as last year’s mark of 64.0% was well below his career average of 72.7%.

40) Luol Deng (SF/PF) – Deng is probably going to have a very good year for the Lakers. He was a top-80 player in his final year with the Heat and averaged a useful 12.3 PPG, 1.2 3PG, 6.0 RPG, and 1.0 SPG. He’s one of the few veterans on the roster and has been brought in to start. The problem is that we don’t know what is going to happen to Deng’s minutes when the Lakers are 15 games out of the playoffs and the fantasy playoffs are about to begin. Last season, the Lakers aggressively rested their veterans. Lou Williams was arguably the Lakers’ best player in 2015-2016 and was racking up DNP-CDs down the stretch. It’s very easy to picture Deng succumbing to the same fate in 2016-2017.

41) Markieff Morris (PF/C) – So far, the Wizards’ trade deadline acquisition of Morris has been a flop. The Wizards failed to make the playoffs despite giving up what turned out to be a lottery pick for Markieff. Despite the slow start to his career in Washington, he remains an intriguing fantasy option due to his past success and his ability to produce across-the-board. Markieff was a top-70 player in 2014-2015 and averaged a very impressive 15.3 PPG, 0.7 3PG, 6.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG, and 0.5 BPG. Those aren’t realistic numbers given that his role in Washington is smaller than what it was in Phoenix, but Morris does have more upside than most players in this range. He was a top-120 player during his time in Washington and should be able to crack the top-100 now that he is more familiar with his teammates and the Wizards’ system.

42) Al-Farouq Aminu (SF/PF) – Aminu’s line ended up looking much different than most predicted in his first season in Portland. Aminu suddenly became an excellent source of threes (1.5 3PG), but failed to produce the defensive stats (0.9 SPG, 0.6 BPG) that fueled his breakout season in Dallas. The versatile swingman did get better as the year went on. Aminu was a top-50 player over the last month of the season and averaged 12.6 PPG, 2.2 3PG, 6.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.8 BPG over that span. His struggles with efficiency, and his counting stat upside, make him a strong fit for both the punt FG% (41.6 FG%) build and the punt FT% (73.7 FT%) build.

43) Kenneth Faried (PF/C) – Faried’s development has stalled and it has caused the Nuggets to begin to look elsewhere for their long-term solution at the four. His fantasy value has also hit an impasse as the power forward can’t seem to become anything more than a top-100 player. Faried’s upside is limited, but the Nugget is also extremely consistent. In his five year career, Faried has never finished worse than 92nd-overall and never better than 81st-overall. Expect close to a double-double (12.6 PPG, 8.7 RPG), top notch FG% impact (55.8 FG%), and around a block per night (0.9 BPG) from Faried in 2016-2017.

44) Cody Zeller (PF/C) – The Hornets’ starting center provides owners with a clean line that has been short on counting stats in the past. That could change this year. Zeller should see his minutes rise (24.3 MPG) and in turn, his rebounding (6.2 RPG), steals (0.8 SPG), and blocks (0.9 BPG). Bump those numbers up slightly and you have an excellent late-round target for the punt points build (12.9 PPG). Zeller is one of the few big men available late in the draft who is a positive both from the floor (52.9 FG%) and at the line (75.4 FT%).

45) Harrison Barnes (SF/PF) – Usually, I get excited when a role player is stepping into a much larger role, but that’s not the case with Barnes. In Golden State, he struggled to create his own shot and his efficiency was fairly pedestrian despite having nearly zero defensive attention paid to him. Here are his per 36 numbers and as well as the per 36 numbers of a mystery player:

Barnes: 13.6 PP36, 1.4 3P36, 5.7 RP36, 2.1 AP36, 0.7 SP36, 0.2 BP36, 46.6 FG%, 76.1 FT%, 1.0 TOP36

Player 2: 13.8 PP36, 1.4 3P36, 4.1 RP36, 2.2 AP36, 0.4 SP36, 0.2 BP36, 44.3 FG%, 84.0 FT%, 1.2 TOP36

Pretty similar numbers. Unfortunately, player 2 is Arron Afflalo. Barnes just isn’t very good. Expect his points to rise as he’ll be taking on a larger role in the offense, but I’m not sure that we’ll see more than minimal improvement in any other category. To make matters worse, his FG% is likely to dip due to the increase in volume and his turnover rate will likely spike now that he’ll be asked to create his own offense more often. Barnes, despite the incoming usage bump, is not a lock to be a top-100 player this season.

46) Zach Randolph (PF/C) – The big man is coming to the end of road, but should have enough gas left in the tank to provide owners with at least one more useful fantasy season. Zach was a top-100 player last year and as usual, most of his value came from his scoring (15.3 PPG) and rebounding (7.8 RPG). He is a solid fit for the punt blocks build (0.2 BPG) due to his rebounding and his ability to score at a reasonably efficient clip (47.5 FG%, 79.6 FT%).

47) Willie Cauley-Stein (PF/C) – The sophomore could post some very useful big man numbers in 2016-2017 if new coach Dave Joerger allows it. Joerger is still undecided on whether Cauley-Stein will start for the Kings this coming season and has spent the summer talking up his teams’ depth at power forward. WCS doesn’t need many minutes to be roster-worthy though. Over the last three months of his rookie season, the big man was a top-110 option in standard leagues despite only playing 23.5 MPG. Even if he only sees a slight increase in minutes, Cauley-Stein should be a very good source of boards (9.0 RP36), defensive stats (1.2 SP36, 1.7 BP36), and FG% impact (56.3 FG%).

48) Mason Plumlee (PF/C) – The Blazers’ big man would be an excellent fantasy weapon if he could ever manage to consistently see 30 MPG. Despite a breakout playoff performance, it appears unlikely that Plumlee will see more than a modest bump in minutes this season (25.4 MPG). Ed Davis remains on the roster and the Blazers’ signed former Warrior Festus Ezeli in free agency. Plumlee’s upside is limited by his teammates, but his well-rounded line makes him one of the best late-round targets for those punting FT% (64.2 FT% on 4.1 FTA). Mason is an above-average source of assists from the center position (2.4 APG) and offers very useful big man numbers (7.7 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 51.6 FG%).

49) Terrence Jones (SF/PF) – Jones gets a shot at redemption as he joins a Pelicans frontline that is incredibly thin behind injury-prone superstar Anthony Davis. Jones was one of the worst players in the league last season, but has almost always delivered the goods when given extended minutes. That should happen in New Orleans and that makes Jones a no-brainer late-round pick. Jones burnt a lot of owners last season, but like Nikola Mirotic, his upside cannot be ignored. The big man was a top-70 player in 2014-2015 and averaged 11.7 PPG on 52.8 FG%, 0.4 3PG, 6.7 RPG, and 1.8 BPG. Give him another chance.

50) Chris Bosh (PF/C) – It’s hard to envision the 2016-2017 season going well for Bosh. Bosh has apparently been cleared by his own doctors to return to the court, but the Heat remain undecided on whether to allow it. The perennial All-Star has now had two consecutive seasons ruined by blood clots and even if he was to be cleared, it’s extremely likely that he’ll be handled with kid gloves all season long. Also working against Bosh is the Heat’s roster. The Heat lost three of their playoff starters over the summer and won’t be competing for a playoff spot this season. It’s unlikely that the Heat allow Bosh to play major minutes down the stretch of what is likely a lost season. He’s untouchable at his current mid-round ADP.

51) Joakim Noah (PF/C) – Noah is worth a late-round flier on the off chance that the move to New York revitalizes his career, but it’s hard to get too excited about the former All-Star given how terrible he has looked the past two years. Noah’s game, and body, has fallen off a cliff. The former All-Star somehow managed to only shoot 38.3% from the field in 2015-2016. That is a spectacularly awful number, especially when you consider that 74% of Noah’s shots were within three feet of the basket. He should still be a decent source of boards (8.8 RPG) and out-of-position dimes (3.8 APG) and is best deployed in the punt points build (4.3 PPG).

52) Alex Len (PF/C) – The Suns unleashed Len down the stretch of the 2015-2016 and the results were both horrendous and intriguing. We learned that Len is not ready to be a focal point of an NBA offense. The center was force fed touches and it led to some of the ugliest shooting numbers you will ever see from a big man. Len shot 39.1% over the last two months of the season and due to the volume (12.1 FGA) that accompanied the terrible shooting, was nearly impossible to roster if you weren’t punting FG%. He also struggled to take care of the ball (2.7 TOPG) and Len’s previously excellent block rate (2.5 BP36 in 2014-2015) completely disappeared (1.2 BP36 in 2015-2016). What makes Len intriguing his ability hit the boards (11.7 RP36) and that previously high block rate. It’s unclear if Len or Tyson Chandler will start at center for the Suns, but regardless of where Len starts the game, he should be worthy of a roster spot to owners punting FG%.

53) Bismack Biyombo (PF/C) – There’s been some talk of Biyombo starting for the Magic, but I find that hard to believe with Nikola Vucevic still on the roster. Biyombo’s very strong playoff run masked how forgettable his regular season was. Bismack was barely a top-175 per minute player during the regular season and is a huge drag on a team’s FT% (62.8%), assists (0.6 APG), and steals (0.4 SPG). The now extremely wealthy center has more holes in his line than most big men and is a mediocre option at the end of the draft as long as Vucevic remains in a Magic jersey. If Vucevic is moved, I still wouldn’t touch Bismack before the later rounds and only those punting FT% should target him aggressively.

54) Ed Davis (PF/C) – Davis is a great per minute player who will remain in a timeshare with Mason Plumlee and possibly Festus Ezeli. The big man was one of the league’s best bench players in 2015-2016 and really turned it on down the stretch. Over the last month of the season, Davis was a top-65 player despite his usual struggles from the line (59.4 FT%). Over that span, he averaged 8.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG, and 1.2 BPG in only 20.7 MPG. He is a punt FT%-only player who can provide a noticeable boost to your team’s FG% (61.1 FG%).

55) Julius Randle (PF) – Randle failed to impress in what was essentially the power forward’s rookie season. The only category the Laker only provided above-average production in was rebounds (10.2 RPG). Those impressive boards were easy to ignore as Randle dragged down his owner’s defensive stats (0.7 SPG, 0.4 BPG) and percentages (42.9 FG%, 71.5 FT%). The Lakers now having a proper head coach does give me some hope that Randle will be worthy of a roster spot. The Lakers’ offense is likely to run much smoother now that Luke Walton is behind the bench and Kobe Bryant is on the couch. Expect Randle’s FG% to improve, but as long as he continues to contribute nothing on the defensive end, his ceiling remains outside of the top-100.

56) Tristan Thompson (PF/C) – Thompson is a punt FT%-only (61.6 FT%) three-category player and is no more than a late-round option for those in need of FG% impact (58.8 FG%) and help on boards (9.0 RPG). The Canadian provides almost nothing on the defensive end (0.5 SPG, 0.6 BPG) and the only other category that Thompson provides above-average production in is turnovers. Thompson has a limited ceiling and his floor is lower than usual this season due to the presence of a certain Kardashian.

57) Mirza Teletovic (SF/PF) – Teletovic is an intriguing option late in the draft, especially now that Khris Middleton is expected to miss six months. The former Sun was a top-50 per minute player in Phoenix and should, at worst, have a large role off the bench given the Bucks’ need for shooting. Teletovic is an excellent three-point specialist (2.3 3PG) and could start for the Bucks now that Middleton is done for the foreseeable future. The sharpshooter was a top-100 player over the last two months of 2015-2016 despite only playing 27.2 MPG.

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