Centers

1) Anthony Davis (PF/C) – The decision of who to pick first comes down to one thing. Risk appetite. Anthony Davis’ short career has been both spectacular and record breaking. We haven’t seen these type of numbers from a big since Kevin Garnett’s 2003-2004 MVP season. Unfortunately, there is one number associated with Davis that he is yet to propel into elite territory. That number is games played. Since entering the league in 2012-2013, the young superstar has played, on average, about 66 games per season. Missing 16 games every season is a big deal. None of Davis’ injuries have been of the chronic variety so this is not a trend that is guaranteed to continue. However, it is something that should be taken in account and is why I rank him behind Steph Curry in my Roto rankings. While there is risk, AD’s upside in H2H is simply too high to ignore. He’s a lock to finish first overall on a per game basis, and despite missing 14 games last season, Davis still finished above James Harden (81 games played) and Chris Paul (82 games played) on a cumulative basis. There’s reason to believe we haven’t seen his ceiling yet. New coach Alvin Gentry is fresh off working with two of the best offenses of all-time and has made it well-known that he plans to expand Davis’ offensive role. For those picking 2-12 in standard drafts, that is terrifying. AD has been working on his three-point shot this offseason but that’s not necessarily a good thing for his fantasy value. As we saw with Serge Ibaka last season, an increase in threes is not worth the FG% hit. Regardless of where that wet J is coming from, Davis is set up for a season for the ages.

2) DeMarcus Cousins (PF/C) – Cousins broke into the top 10 last season despite continuing to have efficiency issues (46.7 FG, 4.3 TOPG). Those numbers don’t bother me as you know what you are getting into when you grab Cousins in first. What should make prospective owners nervous is that Boogie has only played in an average of 65 games over the past two seasons.  As always, it will be a bumpy road with Cousins, but the end result should justify the investment.

3) DeAndre Jordan (C) – The biggest issue with fantasy basketball, and in particular snake drafts, is that the top-5 players are significantly better than any player available later in the draft. Only one player outside of my top five cracked the top 3 in any punt build last season. That player was DeAndre Jordan in the FT% punt build. Andre Drummond was suppose to be the heir apparent to Dwight Howard’s punt-FT% crown, but for now, that title belongs to Jordan. DJ’s FG% (71.0%), rebounds (15.0 RPG), and blocks (2.2 BPG) are what makes fantasy owners salivate, but the newly re-signed Clipper also provides sneaky value in steals (1.0 SPG) and turnovers (1.3 TOPG).

4) Serge Ibaka (PF/C) – Perhaps no early-round player needs to be monitored more closely than Ibaka this preseason. Simply put, if Billy Donovan has him shooting threes, stay away. If not, then Ibaka shouldn’t fall outside of the top 15. Serge’s transition into a stretch four was devastating for his fantasy value. Before the All-Star Break, Ibaka was only posting third-round value thanks to his 45.9% shooting from the floor. After the all-star break, he stopped his Ryan Anderson impersonation and posted top-7 value before having his season ended by a bulky knee. A big man who provides out-of-position threes is a nice luxury to have but not when it comes at the expense of elite FG%.

5) Al Horford (PF/C) – Grabbing Horford around the turn won’t win you any leagues, but it also won’t lose you any. The Hawks’ undersized center has posted top-20 value on a per game basis five of the past six seasons. Horford is an excellent pick in Roto due to his clean line and should see a bump in the 30.5 MPG that he averaged in 2014-2015 as it is extremely unlikely that Atlanta runs away with East once again.

6) Marc Gasol (C) – Marc rebounded from a poor 2013-2014 campaign by posting top-20 numbers last season. Last season was the third time in four years in which Gasol has returned top-20 value. His line is as clean as they come and his out-of-position assists (3.8 APG), blocks (1.6 BPG), and solid efficiency (49.4 FG%, 79.5% FT%) make him an excellent fit for almost any team. Marc is solid but keep your expectations in check. His top-10 finish in 2012-2013 was due to his fluky 84.8% shooting from the charity stripe.

7) Paul Millsap (PF/C) – In what was a bit of a suprise, Millsap returned to the Hawks after flirting with the Magic. The versitile big man has returned top-20 value in both of his seasons in a Hawks uniform. As always, his out-of-position threes (1.1 3PG) and steals (1.8 steals) make him a no-brainer pick in the second.

8) Rudy Gobert (C) – Shipping Enes Kanter and his Amar’e Stoudemire-like defense to OKC and building the team’s defense around Gobert was a brilliant move by the Jazz. The results of this move were spectacular for both the Jazz and fantasy owners. Utah went from a poor defensive team to by far the strongest defensive unit in the league after the trade and Gobert went from a mid-round fantasy asset to a top-20 wrecking machine. After the trade, Rudy posted numbers that included 13.4 RPG and 2.6 BPG to go along with his 57.6 FG%. Don’t let Gobert’s lack of track record scare you away. He’s only 23 and we haven’t seen his ceiling.

9) LaMarcus Aldridge (PF/C) – LMA’s days of being a first-round asset are gone now that he is wearing silver and black. Only Kawhi played more than 30 MPG last season for the Spurs and no player reached that mark in 2013-2014. Aldridge’s first-round numbers came in 35.4 MPG last season so a regression is guaranteed. He’ll still be a very good source of points (23.4 PPG), rebounds (10.2 RPG) out-of-position FT% impact (84.5%) but due to the minutes reduction, this ranking could prove to be too aggressive.

10) Blake Griffin (PF/C) – Blake has improved his free-throw shooting (72.8%) to a point where he’s a reasonable pick for those choosing not to punt freebies. Although viable outside of the build, I still prefer to punt FT% with him as his out-of-position assists (5.3 APG) are exactly what is needed for those looking to have success while ignoring free throws. Don’t worry about Josh Smith’s presence. He won’t see more than 20-25 MPG behind Blake and DeAndre. Blake’s FG% (50.2%) has been on a downward trend for the last three years but expect improvement there as many of the Clippers’ new additions are excellent playmakers.

11) Nerlens Noel (PF/C) – Andrew Wiggins won Rookie of the Year, but it was Noel who was the clear standout rookie both on the court and in the fantasy realm. Despite only being 20, Noel posted Anthony Davis-like defensive numbers in his rookie campaign with averages over the last three months of the season that included 9.1 RPG, 2.0 SPG, and 2.2 BPG. We’re looking at a future Defensive Player of the Year. With the addition of Jahlil Okafor, the Sixers should be improved on offense this season. This should help Noel improve on his middling efficiency from the field (46.2 FG%). There’s first-round potential here. Managers looking to punt points or FT% should pay extra attention to Noel.

12) Nikola Vucevic (PF/C) – Vucevic still doesn’t block shots (0.7 BPG), but that hasn’t stopped the young Magic big man from becoming an early-round asset. With averages of 19.3 PPG and 10.9 RPG, Vucevic is a prime target for those punting blocks as productive big men who don’t derive a large chunk of their value from blocks are rare. The young center does come with some injury risk as Vucevic is regularly dinged up and has missed an average of 14 games over the past four seasons.

13) Andre Drummond (PF/C) – The breakout that everyone was expecting didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean you should give up on Drummond just yet. Greg Monroe is now a Buck and that means more room for Drummond to operate. Don’t expect a return to 2013-2014 FG% levels (62.3%) as the other AD isn’t talented enough to maintain that efficiency with his increased usage but he should improve on last year’s disappointing 51.4%. Even in a down year Drummond posted top-10 numbers without FT% and is an excellent target for those who want to punt FT% and went with Curry or Harden early.

14) Pau Gasol (PF/C) – Pau proved that he plenty left in the tank last season, finishing 16th-overall and suiting up for 78 games. I don’t think either number is repeatable given his advanced age and likely minutes decrease (34.4 MPG) but that incredible playoff schedule guarantees that if healthy, there won’t be many players that you would rather have on your squad come playoff time. There’s been talk of the Bulls switching up their starting frontcourt in order to find more minutes for Nikola Mirotic, but any change would likely come at the expense of the declining Joakim Noah and not Gasol.

15) Hassan Whiteside (C) – I could see Whiteside posting close to first-round value this season. I could also him glued to the bench by January. Whiteside is the biggest boom/bust pick in the draft but his upside makes him worth the gamble. You can’t ignore a player that can average 2.5 BPG and shoot 62.8% from the field. I wouldn’t heavily invest in Whiteside in a keeper or dynasty league but in a redraft, you’re getting an incredibly talented player who is in a contract year. For those punting FT%, and picking early, a start of Curry or Harden with Drummond and Whiteside is both very doable and very terrifying for the rest of your league.

16) Kevin Love (PF/C) – Love was regulated to the Chris Bosh role in his first year in Cleveland, and like Bosh, saw his fantasy value dip. Even with the decreased role, he was still very useful and posted top-35 value in 9-cat leagues. Love should be a better per-minute player as he becomes more accustomed to his role, but with the Cavaliers’ improved depth, it’s unlikely that we see anything more than a small jump from Love. The stretch four is an interesting option for those punting blocks. He does you give you the rebounds that you need (9.7 RPG) and loses very little value without blocks (0.5 BPG), but FG% is a category you need to focus on in that build and Love is a negative there (43.4 FG%).

17) Brook Lopez (C) – Lopez will be available at discount once again. This risk is very real but so is the upside. Brook posted top-10 value over the last two months of the season with averages that included 19.7 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 52.5 FG%, and 81.7 FT%. Getting those numbers in the third or fourth round will win you your league. I always recommend chasing upside but you have to make sure that you don’t overdo it. If you’re taking a player like Lopez early, I would try to minimize my risk elsewhere and then take some other shots late in the draft.

18) Al Jefferson (PF/C) – Big Al is coming off a terrible year, one that saw him drop from a top-15 player to a top-50 player. While his per minute numbers did dip, most of that drop is due to playing five less minutes per game. With the addition of Spencer Hawes, Jefferson’s minutes will likely remain around 30 MPG. What makes me confident that Jefferson will be better than just a top-50 player this season is his FT%. Jefferson is a career 71% shooter from the line but only managed to hit 65.5% of his shots from the charity stripe last season. If that normalizes, you have a top-40 player.

19) Tim Duncan (PF/C) – Father Time may be undefeated but Tim Duncan is giving him a heck of a run. Duncan is 39 but still managed to post second-round numbers in 2014-2015. The addition of LaMarcus Aldridge will hurt Duncan’s rebounding (9.2 RPG), but I don’t see any of his other very solid numbers (13.9 PPG, 3.0 APG, 1.9 BPG) taking much of a hit. I expect Duncan to be better than this ranking on a per game basis, but the Spurs’ poor playoff schedule and the fact that Aldridge’s presence making it easier to rest him, makes The Big Fundamental only a borderline top-40 asset in 2015-2016.

20) Marcin Gortat (C) – The Polish Hammer is coming off back-to-back top-50 seasons but is somehow ranked 76th on Yahoo and 104th on ESPN. I actually had problems finding Gortat on each site because I assumed that he couldn’t possible be ranked that low. If those rankings hold throughout the preseason, and I hope they do, owners need to aggressively target Gortat. The Wizards’ big man posted first-round value over the last two months of the season with averages that included 9.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG, and a sparkling 61.8 FG%. Grabbing Gortat anytime after the fourth is an absolute steal.

21) Greg Monroe (PF/C) – After a very promising start to his career, Monroe went into a two-year slump, failing to post top-85 numbers in both 2012-2013 and 2013-2014. Monroe looked like he was on his way to another disappointing season until he exploded over the last three months of the campaign. Over that period, Monroe posted borderline top-25 numbers and averaged 16.9 PPG, 10.8 RPG, and 1.5 SPG. The steals are not sustainable but Monroe is still a lock for over one swipe a night. Those scoring numbers and rebounding are a reasonable expectation for Monroe in his first year in Milwaukee. More than anything, what will determine Monroe’s value is his FT%. Monroe is a 69.3% career free-throw shooter but in 2014-2015 the former Piston shot 75.0% from the line. Whether or not that improvement is permanent will determine if Monroe is a top-30 player or just a top-60 asset.

22) Dirk Nowitzki (PF/C) – Dirk is still a very good player but it’s hard to put up big numbers when you’re not playing heavy minutes. Dirk was a top-25 per-minute player but saw his per game ranking drop outside of the top 40. The big German will continue to be a solid source of points (17.3 PPG), out-of-position threes (1.4 3PG), and FT% impact (88.2 FT%) but unless he sees an uptick in minutes, that’s all he’ll be. Dirk only played 29.6 MPG last season and that number is unlikely to see an uptick in 2015-2016.

23) Derrick Favors (PF/C) – Rudy Gobert is the new darling of the Jazz frontcourt, and deservedly so, but don’t forget about Favors. The former third-overall pick showed significant improvement on offense last season and saw his PPG jump from 13.3 in 2013-2014 to 16.0 in 2014-2015. Unlike many young players, Favors has increased his scoring while maintaining solid efficiency (52.5 FG%). When you pair those scoring numbers with very strong rebounding totals (8.2 RPG) and excellent defensive stats (0.8 SPG and 1.7 BPG), you have yourself a top-50 pick with top-30 upside.

24) Jonas Valanciunas (C) – Whether or not Jonas ever becomes the second-round fantasy asset that he is capable of being is completely up to Dwane Casey. Valanciunas is entering his fourth year in the league but still hasn’t gained his famously stubborn coach’s trust. The big Lithuanian won’t be the most consistent player on this list, but when a player can average 12.0 PPG, 8.7 RPG, and 1.2 BPG on elite efficiency (57.2 FG%, 78.6 FT%) in only 26.2 MPG, he can’t go any lower than the fifth round. Unleash the beast Casey! Please.

25) Karl-Anthony Towns (C) – Towns was made for fantasy basketball. The 2015 Draft’s top pick has all the makings of a future first-rounder. Towns projects to be a shot blocking monster (2.3 BPG in only 21.1 MPG in his only year at Kentucky), is an excellent free-throw shooter (81.3 FT%), and is even more efficient from the floor (56.6 FG%). If those numbers don’t excited you, there’s already talk of Towns expanding his range beyond the three-point line. Like most rookie bigs, he’s likely to start slow and struggle with foul trouble, but even as a rookie, Towns has early-round upside.

26) Tyson Chandler (C) – The Suns’ big free-agent signing flirted with third-round value last season but now finds himself in a much less fantasy-friendly situation. Not only is Chandler moving from one of the best offenses in the league to an average one, he is also about to enter a nasty timeshare with impressive third-year player Alex Len. Chandler’s line is very fantasy friendly (11.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 66.6 FG%, 72.0 FT%, 1.4 TOPG) which keeps his floor high. Unfortunately, neither Chandler nor Len can play or will likely to see more than spot minutes at the four which makes it unlikely that Chandler matches last season’s 30.5 MPG. On the plus side, the oft injured center is now in the hands of the best medical staff in the league.

27) Chris Bosh (PF/C) – Bosh was one of the bigger busts of 2014-2015 even before his season was cut short by blood clots. After looking like the Toronto version of himself over the first two months of the season, Miami’s 1A option proceeded to fall off a cliff. Bosh struggled to handle his increased role and only shot 43.8% from the field in the New Year. His increased focus on offense also led to his defense slipping. After averaging over a block a game in each of the two prior seasons, Bosh only managed 0.5 BPG in 2014-2015. Now 31, it’s safe to wonder if Bosh is declining. The Boshtrich ended up posting top-40 per game numbers last season but that was in 35.4 MPG. With Miami’s depth much improved and Bosh coming off such a serious illness, I expect his minutes to be closer to 30 a night. It would be a small surprise if the All-Star big man posted top-50 value this season.

28) Gorgui Dieng (PF/C) – Minnesota’s frontcourt is crowded…for now. Dieng will lose minutes to Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Garnett but both are on the shortlist of players most likely to miss significant amounts of time this season. We won’t see a repeat of last season’s top-50 finish due to presence of Karl-Anthony Towns, but Dieng still has solid upside thanks to his defensive stats (1.0 SPG, 1.7 BPG) and efficiency both from the field (50.6 FG%) and at the line (78.3 FT%). He’s currently ranked far too low on both Yahoo and ESPN and savvy owners need to take advantage of that. Dieng is someone I will be targeting in all of my leagues.

29) Dwight Howard (PF/C) – While still a dominant force, Dwight is coming off his worst statistical season since his rookie year. His averages of 10.5 RPG, 0.7 SPG, and 1.3 BPG were all either career lows or the second lowest average of his career. Now of course those are still excellent numbers, but when you factor in Howard’s inability to stay healthy, he’s no longer anywhere near the punt FT% must-have that he once was. In 2014-2015, Dwight was only the 34th-most valuable player on a per game basis without FT%.

30) Robin Lopez (C) – Lopez failed to follow-up on an excellent 2013-2014 campaign but this is a good spot for a player who is only a year removed from a top-40 finish and posts an extremely clean line (53.5 FG%, 77.2 FT%, 1.2 TOPG). If Lopez sees his minutes rise to their 2013-2014 levels (31.8 MPG), he has an outside shot at posting top-50 value. Rolo’s efficiency dipped last season but his per 36 counting stats were very similar in 2014-2015 to what they were the season before.

31) Ryan Anderson (PF/C) – The arrival of Alvin Gentry should mean good things for every member of the Pelicans. The offense should be improved and play at a faster pace. A faster pace could mean more minutes for Anderson whose 2.0+ 3PG will always keep him interesting. Last year’s poor shooting (39.9 FG%) should prove to be a fluke and owners can expect that number to be closer to his career average of 42.2% in 2015-2016.

32) Markieff Morris (PF/C) – Regardless of whether Markieff remains in Phoenix or is in a new uniform when the season starts, the versatile big man is worth a pick anytime after the sixth-round. If his situation becomes more clear by opening night, I will be bumping him up in my rankings. Morris gives you a little bit of everything and while he won’t quite join the one three, one steal, one block club, he is no slouch in those categories (0.7 3PG, 1.2 SPG, 0.5 BPG). The disgruntled big man finished within the top-75 last season due to those averages and his 15.3 PPG.

33) Kenneth Faried (PF/C) – Faried is badly overrated both on the court and in fantasy drafts. He’s undersized, isn’t much of a defender, and can’t create for himself. Fantasy-wise, Faried is ranked just outside of the top 50 on Yahoo and just outside of the top 40 on ESPN. Those are some ridiculous rankings for a player who has never cracked the top 80. His FT% weakness is his most obvious flaw (69.1 FT%), but Faried’s defensive stats are also below-average (0.8 SPG and 0.8 BPG) and he barely registers an assist per game (1.2 APG). Faried is an easy pass at his current price.

34) Zach Randolph (PF/C) – After three years of teetering on the edge of fantasy irrelevance, Z-Bo returned to mid-round value in 2014-2015. Randolph returned sixth-round value in 9-cat thanks to his highest FG% shooting since 2010-2011 (48.7 FG%) and his highest steals rate since 2009-2010 (1.0 SPG). At 34, I’m skeptical that we’ll see a repeat performance. Randolph is still a very good source of points (16.1 PPG) and rebounds (10.5 RPG) but doesn’t contribute in enough categories to have a high floor or a high ceiling.

35) Ed Davis (PF/C) – Jordan Clarkson received quite a bit of hype for posting commendable numbers on last seasons’ train wreck that was the Lakers. Lost in that hype was that Ed Davis was doing something very similar. The former eighth-overall pick has been a journeyman but has flashed serious potential wherever he has been. Over the last three months of the season, Ed posted top-90 value despite only playing 22.5 MPG. That ranking is even more impressive when you consider that Davis is one of the worst free-throw shooters in the league (45.7 FT%). Without FT%, Davis’ rank over that time frame jumps to 42nd-overall. Ed is a great late-round option for those punting FT% and has outstanding potential thanks to his new role that should see him play close to 28 MPG and his impressive per minute numbers (11.7 RP36, 1.9 BP36, and 60.1 FG%).

36) Roy Hibbert (C) – Hibbert is entering a contract year, and with the cap about to explode, expect the former All-Star to be very motivated this season. He’s also joining a team that is fairly rich in playmakers, something last season’s Pacers were lacking. The towering big man also has limited competition for minutes and Coach Scott has been hesitant to go small for extended stretches. Hibbert won’t light the world on fire, but I would expect a return to top-100 value. As always, his blocks (1.6 BPG) and poor efficiency (44.6 FG%) make him a very good fit for the punt FG% build.

37) Myles Turner (C) – Outside of Karl-Anthony Towns, Myles Turner is my favorite rookie target. Turner’s game is extremely fantasy friendly. At Texas, Turner blocked 2.6 shots per game despite only playing 22.2 MPG. The blocks alone make him intriguing, but it’s his ability to stretch the floor (0.5 3PG) and hit his free throws (83.9%) that makes him my number two rookie target. It appears that the opportunity will be there as well. Coach Vogel has been very complimentary of Turner and has already stated that the 6’11 rookie will see major minutes this season. It’s difficult to project what Turner’s ADP will be, but as long as it is reasonable, I would target Turner aggressively.

38) David Lee (PF/C) – Boston’s frontcourt is loaded with mediocre players but as of now, Lee looks like most likely of the group to return decent fantasy value. Lee is only a year removed from posting top-60 value and while he’s unlikely to see enough minutes to repeat that kind of finish, his game is fantasy friendly enough that he will likely be very useful this year. Lee is a solid, late-round target for those punting blocks (0.4 BP36 for his career) and looking for a late percentage boost (52.3 FG% and 78.0 FT% in 2013-2014).

39) Zaza Pachulia (C) – Zaza was outstanding over the last month of the year posting top-60 numbers in only 26.8 MPG. Now a clear starter for the Mavericks, Zaza is in the best position he has ever been in to post serious fantasy value. His lack of blocks limit his upside (0.3 BPG), but DeAndre Jordan’s replacement gives you above-average steals (1.1 SPG), assists (2.4 APG), and free-throw shooting (78.8 FT%) from the center spot.

40) Joakim Noah (PF/C) – Noah looked dangerously close to being done in 2014-2015. Despite only being a year removed from posting top-20 value, he’s no more than a late-round flier for those in need of big man stats (9.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG). The Bulls want to find more minutes for Nikola Miortic and I expect those minutes will come at the expense of Noah. The emotional leader of the Bulls should still be a very good source of out-of-position assists (4.6 APG), but doesn’t have more than top-85 upside this season.

41) Meyers Leonard (PF/C) – It feels like half of the league’s potential breakout players will be wearing a Trail Blazers’ uniform this season. The Blazers’ big man is actually fresh off of a 50/40/90 season. Of course, that impressive efficiency came on low volume, but it also allowed Leonard to post top-65 per 36 numbers. Leonard’s biggest issue is that his line includes close to zero defensive stats. Meyers is 7’1 but only averaged 0.6 BP36. He’s an excellent late-round pick for those punting blocks and hunting for upside.

42) Jared Sullinger (PF/C) – It’s likely to be bumpy ride for Sullinger owners. Early indications are that Coach Stevens is going to start veterans David Lee and Amir Johnson at the two frontcourt spots. This does hurt Sullinger but his upside and per minute production is high enough that he still deserves a look late in drafts. The (very) big man posted top-50 per 36 numbers last season and averaged close to a three (0.9 3PG), steal, (0.8 SPG), and block (0.7 BPG) per game. He is a good fit for both the punt blocks build and the punt FG% build (44.0 FG%).

43) Patrick Patterson (PF/C) – With Amir Johnson in Boston, Patterson has a huge opportunity in front of him. The only other four on the roster is Luis Scola so the starting power forward spot is Patterson’s for the taking. He won’t win you any categories by himself but he doesn’t hurt you anywhere (78.8 FT%) either and is a very good source of out-of-position threes (1.3 3PG). Patterson has a very good chance to improve on both his 26.6 MPG and top-90 2014-2015 finish.

44) Enes Kanter (C) – Kanter, despite the flashy popcorn stats, is someone fantasy owners should be very wary of. Kanter posted top-35 numbers after the trade to OKC with averages of 18.7 PPG and 11.0 RPG. Those are great numbers, but came largely without Serge Ibaka and Durant in the lineup. When those two are healthy, Kanter won’t see the minutes, or shot attempts, to come close to his 2014-2015 production. The former Jazz is not someone who can produce value in limited minutes. He is far too limited defensively (0.5 SPG, 0.4 BPG) and is a major drag on a team’s assist count (0.7 APG).

45) Kyle O’Quinn (PF/C) – O’Quinn showed flashes of potential in Orlando but was never given the opportunity to consistently play starters’ minutes. That could change in New York as O’Quinn is a very good fit for the triangle due to his underrated passing ability and increased range. Regardless of whether or not O’Quinn starts at PF, I expect his minutes to be in the mid-20s. That has been enough minutes for O’Quinn to be valuable in the past. It’s early, but O’Quinn is one of my favorite late-round targets.

46) Jusuf Nurkic (C) – The feisty Bosnian isn’t a guarantee to be healthy by the time the season opener rolls around, but his upside makes him worth a look in the last three rounds of the draft. As a starter, Nurkic averaged an impressive 8.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG, and 1.4 BPG in 23.2 MPG. Nurk will likely continue to struggle with foul trouble this year but his upside is undeniable. Managers looking at the punt FG% build should pay close attention as Nurk provides the big man stats you need for the build but on low efficiency (44.6 FG%).

47) Andrew Bogut (C) – Next to Nikola Pekovic, no player is more likely to miss significant time this season than Bogut. You know a player has issues with injuries when playing 67 games like he did in 2014-2015 is considered a win. What makes Bogut worth a late pick is that he’s actually pretty useful when he does play. He gives you the big man stats you would expect (8.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 56.3 FG%) and is an underrated passer (2.7 APG). His FT% is scary (52.4%) but has little impact on his value due to his microscopic 0.6 FTA.

48) Mason Plumlee (PF/C) – Plumlee is competing with Leonard for the Blazers’ starting center spot and should be worth a look late if he can carve out 25 MPG. The former Net is a FT% punt-only player (49.5 FT%) as the only full-time players who had a larger negative impact on the category were Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond, and DeAndre Jordan. If you’re punting FT% and go heavy on guards early, grab Plumlee late and enjoy his 10.6 RP36, 1.3 SP36, 1.3 BP36, and 57.3 FG%.

49) Alex Len (C) – The Suns have seemed content to take a run on the treadmill the last couple years and their signing of Tyson Chandler confirms that they don’t intend to get off anytime soon. Len had some very useful stretches last season but apparently the Suns weren’t impressed enough with sophomore to commit to his development in 2015-2016. Chandler is injury prone so Len should get a shot to start at some point during the season, but until then, he’ll be no more than a low-end source of big man stats (10.8 RP36, 2.5 BPG, 50.7 FG%).

50) Amir Johnson (PF/C) – The Celtics have a bevy of offensively talented big men but Amir is the only one of the group who provides NBA-level defense. The Celtics’ likely starting center should see close to the 26.4 MPG that he saw in his final year in Toronto. Johnson has a fairly fantasy-friendly game (three top-100 finishes in the last five years) but is held back by his propensity to lead the league in ankle sprains. Expect over six rebounds and a block a night from Johnson to go along with his always excellent FG% (57.4 FG%).

51) Jordan Hill (PF/C) – Hill was a flop with the Lakers in his first real opportunity to see extended minutes but finds himself in another fairly promising position. Hill is replacing David West in Indiana and should see plenty of playing time both as the backup power forward (Paul George is likely to start at the four) and at center. Indiana is planning on playing faster this season, so he’s unlikely to see the 28.7 MPG that West saw, but if Hill can earn close to 25 minutes a night, he should be a valuable source of rebounds (7.9 RPG) and blocks (0.8 BPG).

52) Timofey Mozgov (C) – Mozgov is another high floor, low ceiling player. After his trade to Cleveland, Mozgov provided borderline top-100 value with averages of 10.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG, and 59.0 FG%. Until Anderson Varejao has his annual season-ending injury, the big Russian will see a small decrease in those averages but what really hurts Mozgov’s standing in H2H, is the game-to-game inconsistency. With all the options David Blatt has at his disposal, the former Nugget will see his minutes fluctuate based on the opponent. Over the last month of the season, Mozgov only played at least 24 minutes in seven of the Cavaliers’ last fourteen contest.

53) Brandon Bass (PF/C) – Bass isn’t the most exciting late-round pick but projects as a good glue guy who provides useful contributions in points (10.6 PPG), rebounds (4.9 RPG), and percentages (50.4 FG%, 79.0 FT%). With Bass the likely starter at the four in LA, there’s top-125 upside here.

54) John Henson (PF/C) – The Bucks have a lot of big names in their starting lineup but it’s hard to see a team starting Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe up front and not struggling on defense. Enter John Henson. Unlike Zaza Pachulia, Monroe can play the four so Henson should see minutes both beside and behind the newest Buck. Henson is capable of explosive performances thanks to his 4.0 BP36 and this could be the year we see some consistency from the Tar Heel.

55) Jahlil Okafor (C) – Philadelphia’s offense will run through Okafor, but I wouldn’t expect much fantasy value here. The former Blue Devil is terrible from the line (51.0 FT%), and with how much Okafor will likely be featured, the impact of those bricks will be Donald Trump-level huge. Foul trouble will likely also be a very serious issue for Okafor. Opposing teams will target Okafor’s terrible pick and roll defense which will lead to quite a few nights of the young big being glued to the bench. His defensive rotations in general are very poor and it’s going to take some time for Okafor to get used to the speed of NBA. The number three pick will be a good source of points, rebounds, and blocks but is only a flier for those punting FT%.