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Punt Threes

Punting threes is an option for anyone picking Chris Paul (1.1 3PG last season), LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Jefferson, Al Horford, Marc Gasol, or Anthony Davis in the first round. Ignoring threes obviously boosts the value of most big men and downgrades most perimeter players. Last season, just under 1.0 3PG was average for a rostered player in a 12-team, standard league. FT% is the category that you should pay the most attention to during the draft as most of the best FT shooters are among the three-point shooters that you will be ignoring. Blocks and points are also important to keep track of as many of the better FT% shooting big men don’t block a ton of shots and the first round targets for this build are not elite scorers.

Note: Yahoo Fantasy Basketball’s ranking is in parentheses. The round that I have listed each player in is the round that I would target them in.

R2) John Wall (19) – Overrated right now but a good fit for this build. Good blocks for a PG (0.8 BPG), 80% FT%, and only 0.2 3PG. Only weakness in this build is his TOs (3.2).

R2) Dwyane Wade (21) – Finished 13th overall without threes last season. FT% (72%) isn’t ideal but good blocks from the SG spot (0.8) and very strong everywhere else.

R2) Ricky Rubio (20) – His downside is limited in this build. Put up top 30 value without threes over the final month of the season. He should only get better this year. FG% is an issue (36%), but he’s a good bet to lead the league in steals (2.4) and assists (7.3) should go up.

R3) Tony Parker (34) – Ideal PG target. 21st overall last season without threes and a great percentages anchor (52% FG% and 84% FT%).

R3) Tim Duncan (30) – FT% jumped from 70% in 2011-2012 to 82% last season so expect regression from the line. Big man stats should be elite once again.

R3) Chris Bosh (31) – Great fit for this and most builds. Elite percentages (54% FG% and 80% FT%). FT% should actually go up as he was above 80% four out of the prior five seasons. He’s blocking shots now too (1.4).

R3) Brook Lopez (32) – A career 79% FT shooter. A good source of points (19.4) and blocks (2.1).

R4) Eric Bledsoe (46) – Has looked incredible in preseason. Likely will lead all guards in blocks and could give Paul and Rubio a run for the steals title. Only 0.7 threes per 36 last season.

R4) David Lee (48) – Gets you the points (18.5) and FT% (80%) that you need but minimal blocks (0.3).

R4) Roy Hibbert (47) – FT% is mediocre (74%) as is his scoring (11.9 PPG), but only Larry Sanders and Serge Ibaka will average more blocks (2.6).

R5) Jeff Teague (55) – Solid PG stats to go along with 88% FT% and only average threes (1.1).

R5) Jonas Valanciunas (73) – Over the last month of the season he averaged 2.0 BPG and shot 85% from the line. He was great in Europe at the charity stripe so the FT% isn’t a fluke. Keep expectations for PPG in check. Raptors’s offense will still run through Gay and DeRozan.

R6) Derrick Favors (60) – Poor from the line (69%) but a lock for a double-double and could push 2.5 BPG.

R6) Enes Kanter (69) – Another good bet for a double-double. Less blocks than Favors (1.1 per 36) but also much better from the line (80%).

R6) Amir Johnson (74) – Solid contributions across the board production including 1.4 BPG last season. Toronto doesn’t have much upfront besides Amir and Valanciunas so expect a minutes bump.

R7) Tobias Harris (89) – Solid blocks from the SF position (1.4 per 36 after the move to Orlando) and FT% should be close to 80% (77% career FT shooter).

R7) Tyreke Evans (78) – Improved from deep last season but still only averaged 0.7 3PG. Good source of points (15.0) this late.

R8) Spencer Hawes (120) – Actually hits the odd three (0.4 last season) but his increased role and very good per minute numbers means that he’ll have good value here in a team building strategy that benefits him.

R9) DeMar DeRozan (98) – I’m not sure that the threes (0.4) will ever come and you can’t do any better at this point in the draft when it comes to points (18.1) and FT% impact (83% on 5.2 FTA).

R10) Evan Turner (101) – He was mediocre even without threes (0.7) last season but his role should be massive with Jrue out of town. His percentages are bad (42% FG% and 74% FT%) but he should be able to break 5.0 APG (4.3 last season) and he’s an elite rebounder at the SG spot (6.3).

R10) Robin Lopez (115) – Finished a very solid 53rd overall last season without threes. No reason why he can’t replicate last season in Portland. Shot a very solid 78% from the line last season and blocked 1.6 shots per game.

R10) Shawn Marion (127) – Hasn’t been above 0.3 3PG since Phoenix. Finished 31st  overall without threes last season. He should be targeted in every draft regardless of the build given the price.

R12) Samuel Dalembert/Brandan Wright (138/197) – Keep an eye on Wright’s timetable. If it doesn’t look like he’ll miss too many games to start the season then he’s the guy to target here. Both will provide solid blocks late but Wright is a much better bet for consistent minutes. Dalembert has already drawn the ire of Carlisle due to poor conditioning.

R13) Al-Farouq Aminu (169) – A good source of defensive stats late (0.7 BPG and 1.2 SPG) and doesn’t hit threes (0.1).

 

Follow me on Twitter @EliteFanBBall for the latest fantasy basketball news. I will gladly answer any fantasy basketball related questions that you may have. 

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