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Sep 10

17/18 September Rankings: 126-150

126) Patty Mills (PG) – The Australian has always been a very intriguing player. He has always posted very good per minute numbers, but hasn’t taken off like his per minutes numbers would suggest when given extended run. With Tony Parker out at least another four months, Mills will have his best opportunity yet to establish himself as a starting-caliber player in the NBA. He should see minutes in the upper 20s and that should make him an excellent source of threes (3.0 3P36). He should also be able to provide owners with low-end assist numbers (5.7 AP36) to go along with average steals numbers (1.4 SP36). Don’t panic if Mills doesn’t start for the Spurs. Popovich likes Mills with the second unit and where Mills starts the game won’t have a major impact on playing time.

127) Danny Green (SG/SF) – Green’s value is very build-dependent. Last season, he was a borderline top-80 option in punt points. If you weren’t punting points, he was only a top-120 option. His threes (1.7 3PG), steals (1.1 SPG), and out-of-position blocks (0.8 BPG), keep his floor high, but his days of having a mid-round ceiling appear over. The Spurs didn’t add anything to their backcourt this season so Green’s minutes are safe.

128) Marcin Gortat (C) – Gortat is now 33-years-old and looked like it last season. His blocks rate fell off a cliff and the Polish Hammer only ended up averaging 0.8 BPG in 2016-2017. That number got worse as the season went on. After the All-Star break, the big man was only good for 0.4 blocks a night. That wasn’t the only red flag that was raised during Gortat’s 2016-2017 season. Once Ian Mahinmi returned from a knee injury, Gortat saw a significant drop in playing time. Over the last two months of the season, he only averaged 24.7 MPG. That destroyed his fantasy value and the center wasn’t even a top-200 player over that period. He’s still worth a late-round pick due to his history. However, he’ll need an injury to Mahinmi, a real possibility given what Mahinmi went through last season, to have any shot at, once again, being a mid-round player.

129) Kent Bazemore (SG/SF) – Bazemore didn’t come close to matching his 2015-2016 top-75 finish last season. He experienced a major drop in his rebounding rate (3.1 RPG) and saw his efficiency plummet (40.8 FG%, 70.8 FT%). His rebounding should improve with Dwight Howard in Charlotte, but his percentages are harder to predict. The Hawks will be lacking quality offensive options next season which will make it hard for Bazemore to score efficiently. He’s also only had one season in the league where he shot better than 71% from the charity stripe. Expect very good defensive stats from Bazemore (1.3 SPG, 0.7 BPG) to go along with respectable triples (1.3 3PG).

130) Derrick Rose (PG) – The Isaiah Thomas situation is looking dire and Rose could end up starting a significant chunk of games for the Cavaliers. He should be roster worthy as long as Thomas is out, but don’t expect him to be able to replicate the top-90 numbers that he posted after the All-Star break. Rose won’t come close to matching his 2016-2017 25.7% usage rate playing beside LeBron James and Kevin Love. The drop in usage guarantees that almost all of his counting stats will fall. I wouldn’t expect Rose to provide owners with anything more than a decent scoring average (18.0 PPG) and low-end assists (4.4 APG). Once Thomas returns, Rose will be droppable.

131) Norman Powell (SG/SF) – It looks like this is the year that Powell finally gets the minutes that he’s long deserved. He’ll battle C.J. Miles for the Raptors’ starting small forward spot and should see plenty of run regardless of where he starts the game. Powell is already a very good player, but if he’s going to make an impact on the fantasy scene, he’s going to have to improve his per minute production. He was only a top-200 per minute player last season and produced mediocre numbers in the categories that he’s going to have to excel in in order to crack the top-100 (1.5 3P36, 1.3 SP36, 0.4 BP36). For now, he’s only a late-round flier.

132) Moe Harkless (SF) – Harkless made a major jump last season and looks like a solid rotation player. He’s still only 24-years-old and likely hasn’t reached his ceiling. Harkless cracked the top-100 last season, and with Allen Crabbe’s minutes up for grabs, a repeat performance is very possible. He’s an especially good option in punt assists build (1.2 APG). When punting assists, you’ll usually be looking to be strong from the field and in the defensive categories. Harkless provides decent value in all three categories (1.1 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 50.2 FG%). He’s also improved from deep (0.9 3PG) and will help keep your turnovers (0.9 TOPG) low. Watch out for his poor free-throw shooting (62.1 FT%).

133) Eric Gordon (SG) – Gordon won the Sixth Man of the Year award because he had an exceptionally hot start. He was extremely mediocre in the New Year and didn’t even hold top-150 value over the last three months of the season. The arrival of Chris Paul doesn’t help matters and Gordon should see his role and minutes shrink. Gordon will be great from deep (3.3 3PG) and will score more than most players available after the middle rounds (16.2 PPG), but he’s not going to return value on his current eighth-round price.

134) Dewayne Dedmon (C) – The Hawks’ new starting center was a top-85 per minute player in 2016-2017 and should have a much bigger role in Atlanta than he did in San Antonio. He has the ability to provide very useful big man numbers (13.4 PP36, 1.8 BP36, 62.2 FG%) and a top-100 finish isn’t not out of the question. A top-80 finish is possible if you’re punting points (10.5 PP36).

135) Andre Roberson (SG/SF) – Roberson was probably on-and-off your waiver wire all season long last year. His lack of scoring (6.6 PPG) scares off managers who place too much value on the points category. He’s never going to be a scorer, but he can be a very effective asset in the right situation. If you ignored points last season, he was a top-100 player. If you punted both points and FT%, he was a top-60 option. I strongly prefer Roberson in the double-punt over just a regular punt points build. The FT% hit that accompanies Roberson is significant (42.3 FT%). Despite only averaging 1.4 FTA, only one wing player had a larger negative effect on the category. That was LeBron James who got to the line an average of 7.2 times a night. The arrival of Paul George shouldn’t have a significant impact on Roberson’s outlook as almost all of his value comes on the defensive end (1.2 SPG, 1.0 BPG) and on the boards (5.1 RPG).

136) Brandon Ingram (SG/SF) – Ingram was a disappointment as a rookie both on the court and in fantasy. His efficiency was horrendous (40.2 FG%, 62.1 FT%) and he couldn’t get anything going on the defensive end either (0.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG). He’s got a long way to go. Fortunately, at his current 11th-round price, the risk is minimal. He’s still an elite prospect whose college numbers suggest will be a very good fantasy asset one day. I’m rather gamble on Ingram than someone like Courtney Lee who may have a higher floor, but whose ceiling is very low.

137) Larry Nance Jr. (PF) – Nance just needs to find a way to play more minutes. The Laker was a top-90 player last season despite only playing 22.9 MPG. He returns as Brook Lopez’s and Julius Randle’s backup and will need an injury to one of those players to have a true breakout season. Even if those players stay healthy, Nance will be one of the better sources of steals from the power foward spot (1.3 SPG). He can also provide a smattering of boards (5.9 RPG) and will have a small, positive impact on FG% (52.5 FG%).

138) Tristan Thompson (PF/C) – Thompson is very good in two categories (9.2 RPG, 60.0 FG%) and forgettable just about everywhere else. He set a career-high in blocks (1.1 BPG), but his rim protection faltered as the season went on. Thompson only averaged 0.8 BPG over the last two months of the season. Thompson is just an option for those who are punting FT% and didn’t get enough big man stats early. If you’re not punting FT%, stay far, far away. Only five players had a larger negative impact on the category last season (49.8 FT% on 2.7 FTA).

139) Will Barton (SG/SF) – Danilo Gallinari’s move to Los Angeles opens up some minutes for Barton and he’ll be worth a look late on draft day. Barton slipped last season, but was a still a top-120 option who helped owners in the points (13.7 PPG) and threes (1.5 3PG) columns. He can also be a sneaky source of blocks (0.5 BPG) and assists (3.4 APG). Barton will need to improve his swipes (0.8 SPG) to crack the top-100 this season.

140) J.R. Smith (SG/SF) – The normally reliable Smith is coming off of a lost season. He missed almost all of training camp and preseason and then sat out 41 games, mostly due to a fractured thumb. Before last season, the three-point bomber had been a top-100 player in both of his seasons with the Cavaliers. With Isaiah Thomas looking like he’ll miss time, Smith should see a few more touches and could find himself within the top-100 once again. Like most of the wings available this late, most of Smith’s value is going to come from threes (2.3 3PG) and steals (1.0 SPG). His FG% was laughably bad last season (34.6 FG%), but last season was first time since the 2005-2006 season that Smith failed to break 40%. He’s a lock to improve to improve his shooting. How much he does will determine how high he rises in the rankings.

141) Wes Matthews (SG/SF) – So far, no notable player has been able to overcome a torn Achilles. Matthews’ hasn’t been able to get back to his pre-injury efficiency levels (39.3 FG%) and that has tanked his value. He really struggled down the stretch of last season and even his triples output faltered (1.6 3PG over the last two months of the season). Matthews will compete with Seth Curry for playing time and if he continues to struggle, Curry could surpass him for good.

142) Tyreke Evans (SG/SF) – Ben McLemore is going to miss the start of the season and that will give Evans an opportunity to get off to a hot start. Even when McLemore returns, Evans will be, at worst, the team’s sixth man. This is a good landing spot for Evans, the only question is, and it’s a big one, is whether or not he can stay healthy for a full NBA season. Evans has only played 65 games in total the past two seasons. The Kings even limited his minutes last year and it didn’t help. If Tyreke can finally stay healthy, he can post some flashy popcorn stats. His 2015-2016 per game numbers were excellent and give you an idea of what he can do when he’s feeling good (15.2 PPG, 1.3 3PG, 5.2 RPG, 6.6 APG, 1.3 SPG).

143) Boban Marjanovic (C) – Boban is now Andre Drummond’s primary backup and will have the opportunity to show off his elite per minute production. Last season, only 9 players produced more on a per minute basis and those 9 players were all among the fantasy elite. Now, Marjanovic isn’t going to see nearly enough minutes to be an early-round player, but a top-100 finish, even if he only plays 18 MPG or so is still very doable. You can do a lot of damage in limited minutes if you produce 23.4 PP36, 16.0 RP36, and 1.5 BP36 while shooting 54.5% from the floor and 81.0% from the line.

144) Robin Lopez (C) – Lopez is in the same position as his teammate Dwyane Wade. He’s a veteran on a team that is going young and likely won’t have much of a role when the fantasy playoffs come along. Until then, Lopez is going to be worth a roster spot. He’s still a very good shotblocker (1.5 BPG) and his percentages are usually good (49.3 FG%, 72.1 FT%). Expect his FT% to improve as last year’s mediocre success rate was, by far, his lowest in the last five years. If you want to target Lopez late, make sure you have plenty of steals already on your roster. He’s one of the biggest drags on swipes in the league (0.2 SPG).

145) JaMychal Green (PF) – This ranking assumes that Green will re-sign with the Grizzles. If Green returns, the Grizzlies’ power forward rotation is going to consist of Green and Jarell Martin. So it’s safe to say that Green is going to see plenty of minutes if he does come back. The big man provides a little bit of everything with his best contributions coming on the boards (7.0 RPG). He can also hit from deep (0.7 3PG) and has had stretches where he has been an underrated source of FG% impact (50.2 FG%). His efficiency, boards, and lack of blocks (0.4 BPG) makes him a quality late-round target for those punting blocks.

146) Cody Zeller (PF/C) – If the Hornets didn’t trade for Dwight Howard, Zeller would be a top-100 pick. He was a top-80 option in 2016-2017 and produces a very clean line. He is extremely efficient from the field (57.1 FG%) and active on defense (0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG). He’s still a good option in the punt points build (10.3 PPG), but he’ll be on the edge of being roster worthy as long as Dwight is healthy.

147) Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF) – Ersan will likely begin the year as the Hawks’ starting power forward. As we saw last year when he was with the Sixers, he can still put up some interesting lines. Ilyasova is more of a short-term pick that you’ll be hoping helps get your team off to a strong start. With the Hawks look like bottom dwellers, they’ll likely move on from players like Ilyasova as the year goes on in favor of their younger players. Before the inevitable drop in playing time, the veteran should produce solid numbers in the points (13.1 PPG), threes (1.7 3PG), and rebounding (5.9 RPG) categories.

148) Enes Kanter (C) – Kanter continues to be a great per minute player. His per 36 numbers are jaw-dropping (24.3 PP36, 11.3 RP36). His percentages are very good as well (54.5 FG%, 78.6 FT%). Unfortunately, Coach Donovan doesn’t like playing Kanter beside Steven Adams and that keeps Kanter’s minutes in the low 20s. He just doesn’t play enough minutes to be a top-100 player. You’ll be drafting Kanter for his upside and in the hope that Donovan changes his mind. For what it’s worth, the Adams/Kanter lineup was pretty effective last season (112.5 ORtg, 106.2 DRtg).

149) Kelly Olynyk (C) – Olynyk is another high-upside Heat player who will need to watched in Miami. The move to the Heat should be good for Olynyk’s value. He should see time both at the four and backing up Hassan Whiteside. The Canadian has a fantasy-friendly game and is one of the only players available late in the draft who can provide owners with out-of-position threes (0.9 3PG) while helping them win FG% (51.0 FG%). Olynyk is a very good late-round option for those punting blocks (0.4 BPG).

150) John Collins (PF) – Collins will likely start the season behind Ilyasova and could easily take the veteran’s starting spot later in the year. The rookie should see a fair amount of minutes immediately with Hawks extremely thin at the four. His college stats and extremely strong summer league suggest that he could take advantage of that playing time. Collins projects as an efficient scorer (62.2 FG%) and a very good rebounder (9.8 RPG). He should be serviceable in the blocks column (1.6 BPG) and respectable from the line (74.5 FT%). As is the case with the majority of rookies, Collins will experience plenty of bumps in the road. Expect him to struggle with passing the ball (0.5 APG) and it will take some time for him to expand his game beyond the three-point line (0.0 3PG).

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