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Feb 12

Week 17 Preview

We’ve made it to the most unique week of the season. Your strategy this week will depend on whether Week 17 lasts one or two weeks. If you play in a league where Week 17 last two weeks, then treat it like any other week. If you play in a league where Week 17 only runs until Thursday, then I hope you have a strong schedule. A four day week means more variance than usual and a bad day can lead to a blowout loss. If you have a short week this week, you need to be very aggressive with your streaming as even one extra game could swing multiple categories.

 

ATL BKN BOS CHA CHI CLE DAL DEN DET GSW HOU IND LAC LAL MEM
One-week Week 17 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2
MIA MIL MIN NOR NYK OKC ORL PHI PHO POR SAC SAS TOR UTA WAS
One-week Week 17 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

 

ATL BKN BOS CHA CHI CLE DAL DEN DET GSW HOU IND LAC LAL MEM
Two-week Week 17 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 5 5 4 4
MIA MIL MIN NOR NYK OKC ORL PHI PHO POR SAC SAS TOR UTA WAS
Two-Week Week 17 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
  • Pacers and Celtics are your main targets for the first four days of Week 17. They are the only teams that play three times over the next four days. C.J. Miles needs to started in all weekly leagues and the corpse of Monta Ellis is a reasonable option for those looking for extra games. Kelly Olynyk is a strong option as well. Even Jaylen Brown and Amir Johnson are decent options this week due to Celtics’ strong schedule.
  • In weekly leagues, I would stay away from any player that is questionable to play this week. Most teams will play it safe and just rest their players through the break. That makes Avery Bradley, Thaddeus Young, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, and Joel Embiid sits this week. Again, I want to stress how important it is to move Embiid before your league’s trade deadline. If Embiid picks up even a hangnail over the next month, the Sixers are going to shut him down. Nerlens Noel is an outstanding buy-low target. With Jahlil Okafor on his way out, there’s a very good chance that Noel, a top-15 per minute player, will be the Sixers’ starting center during the fantasy playoffs.
  • If your Week 17 is two weeks long, make sure that you save some moves for the second half of the week. The trade deadline is next Wednesday and a handful of useful players will pop up on the wire. If your team is struggling, February 23rd could provide a lifeline.

Week 17 Pickups

Cody Zeller – Zeller has missed eight of the Hornets’ last nine games and that has caused his ownership to dip below 50% on Yahoo. Far too many managers are making a major mistake as Zeller has clearly established himself as a mid-round player. He’s been a top-70 player over the last two months and is one of the better FG% anchors in the league (58.7 FG%). He also gives you enough on the defensive end (0.7 SPG, 1.1 BPG) and has improved from the line as the season has gone on (78.0 FT% over the last two months).

Kyle Korver – Korver has seen at least 25 minutes in each of the Cavaliers’ last seven games and has been a top-65 player over that span. Over those seven games, he shot an incredible (and unsustainable) 63.6% from the floor despite most of his attempts coming from behind the arc (3.3 3PG). He’s doing nothing on the defensive end this year (0.6 SPG, 0.3 BPG), but the move to Cleveland has made him one of the few three-point specialists who doesn’t come with a substantial FG% hit.

C.J. Miles – Thad Young is likely out through the All-Star Break and until he returns, Miles is a must-own and a must-start player. He’s hit the 20 point mark in two of the Pacers’ last three games and is averaging 4.3 triples in those three contests. Once Thad returns, he’ll go back to only being a streaming option.

Malcolm Brogdon – Jabari Parker’s season-ending ACL tear makes Brogdon a lock to provide owners with at least low-end value for the rest of the season. In the two games that the Bucks have played without Parker, Brogdon’s usage has been in the mid-20s which is significantly higher than his season-long usage rate of 18.0%. Khris Middleton will eventually take Brogdon’s spot as the Bucks’ secondary creator, but until then, Brogdon should post some very useful lines.

Moe Harkless – After an extremely hot start to the season, Harkless lost his starting his starting spot and in turn, his standard-league viability. Evan Turner’s injury gives Harkless a second chance. He’ll start while Turner is out of the lineup and should see close to 30 MPG. When Harkless was seeing that much run earlier in the year he was a top-80 player. I wouldn’t expect that level of production as Harkless’ per minute numbers have fallen off, but he should be useful from deep (1.0 3PG) and on the defensive end (1.1 SPG, 0.9 BPG).

Al-Farouq Aminu – Like Harkless, Aminu should see more run with Evan Turner out four-to-six weeks. He’s been much better than Harkless recently and is playing more minutes than his teammate as well. Aminu has been a top-100 player over the last month and is a threat to post one three (1.1 3PG), one steal (1.0 SPG), and one block (0.7 BPG) every time he steps on the court. The Blazer is an excellent fit for the punt FG% build, not only because of his struggles from the floor (36.9 FG%), but because of his ability to provide the blocks and boards (7.2 RPG) that the build often lacks.

Jusuf Nurkic – Nurkic is by no means a must-own player. I know everyone is running to grab the newest Blazer, and while he’s definitely worth a flier, keep your expectations low. Nurkic will be a major drag on your FT% (49.6 FT%) and his FG% has been trending down after his hot start (38.3% FG% over the last month). He has also comes with major durability questions and it will take him some to learn the Blazers’ system. Don’t expect major minutes for at least a couple of weeks. When he does get up to speed, Nurkic should provide owners will a fair amount of boards (11.6 RP36) and defensive stats (1.1 SP36, 1.6 BP36).

Matt Barnes – With Rudy Gay done for the year, Barnes is the only player on the Kings’ roster who can comfortably play the three. The Kings’ sudden lack of depth on the wing has allowed Barnes to play at least 30 minutes in four of the Kings’ past five games.The journeyman has taken advantage of his extended playing time. Barnes can provide owners with across-the-board production and the veteran is averaging 11.0 PPG, 1.8 3PG, 9.6 RPG, 4.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, and 0.6 BPG over his last five games.

Week 17 Watchlist/Streaming Options/Deep League Pickups

Andre Roberson – With Enes Kanter still recovering from his knockout loss to a chair, Roberson has a chance to return close to top-100 value. The Thunder are now incredibly thin at the four, and Roberson has been seeing more minutes in small-ball lineups. Roberson is an excellent fit for the punt points build (6.7 PPG), but prospective owners will need to watch out for the major FT% hit that accompanies the defensive stopper. Despite only averaging 1.5 FTA, Roberson has had the 16th-largest negative impact on the category.

Dewayne Dedmon – Dedmon is a solid option in deeper leagues and is someone that standard league managers should keep an eye on down the stretch. The big man has been a top-60 per minute player this season and could have some value during the fantasy playoffs when Greg Popovich decides to rest his studs. He’ll also be a decent low-end option until Pau Gasol returns. Dedmon has started the Spurs’ last seven games and has pulled down double-digit boards in four of those seven games.

Jamal Crawford – Crawford is not someone that I would consider a strong long-term option, but if you are in need of a points and threes boost, you could do worse than the veteran. Crawford has been a top-50 player over the past two weeks and is seeing more run with Chris Paul out of the lineup. Over the Clippers’ last six games he’s produced 19.0 PPG and 3.0 3PG in 30.4 MPG. He’s worth a roster spot in deeper leagues and should hold low-end value in standard leagues until Paul returns.

Ed Davis – Jusuf Nurkic is an obvious pickup, but Davis may end up being the better fantasy option. Davis was the Blazers’ best big man last season but hasn’t got as much run this season with the Blazers trotting out more small-ball lineups. That could change now that Mason Plumlee has been replaced with the less reliable Nurkic. Nurkic likely won’t see as many minutes as Plumlee did and Davis was a top-85 player in the punt FT% build last season in only 20.8 MPG. Without points and FT%, the big man was a top-50 player in 2015-2016. He’s worth a flier in deeper leagues.

Kelly Olynyk – Olynyk has an outstanding Week 17 schedule and has been playing well enough to be owned in deeper leagues. The Canadian has been a top-100 player over the past month and has been a consistent source of out-of-position triples (1.1 3PG). What makes Olynyk valuable is that he can provide those threes while boosting your FG%. The big man has shot 61.5% from the floor since the middle of January.

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