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Small Forwards

1) Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF) – Giannis achieved superstardom last season, but we’re still no where close to seeing his ceiling. He still doesn’t have a three-ball (0.6 3PG) and he’s still very mediocre from the line (77.0 FT%). There’s no guarantee that he improves either weakness this season, but he doesn’t need to in order to justify being picked in the top three. Giannis’ defensive stats (1.7 SPG, 1.9 BPG) make him a great fit for any build. Punt FT% is an obvious match and owners choosing Giannis should treat him like a big who provides out-of-position assists (5.4 APG) when drafting. Don’t go light on point guards later because you picked Giannis early or you’ll fall behind in threes and assists. His assists are useful, but you’ll likely be choosing big men who only average 1-2 APG so more help is needed. Punting points is another great option for Giannis owners. Just make sure you scoop up plenty of threes and strong free-throw shooters later.

2) Kawhi Leonard (SG/SF) – Getting Leonard at eight feels like a steal, but it goes to show how deep the top of the draft is this year. Kawhi has been a top-4 player in punt assists the past two seasons and barring injury, will be, at worst, a top-4 option in that build this season. Kawhi, Towns, Durant, and Davis will be the top-4 punt assists players in some order. That is very close to a lock. That was the top-4 last season, and fifth place wasn’t close. So, at worst, you’re getting the fourth-best player in your build at eight if you pick Leonard and punt assists. That’s a pretty good deal. I have Kawhi at eight because he’s the riskiest of the top-8 players. Anthony Davis has missed more games over the past two years, but with the Pelicans being a borderline playoff team next season, it’s unlikely he ever sits for rest purposes or with a minor injury.

3) LeBron James (SF/PF) – LeBron is coming off the quietest 26.4/8.7/8.7 season ever. He is still an absolutely dominant fantasy option and provides excellent value in 7 of 9 categories. In addition to his popcorn stats, he is a FG% monster (54.8 FG%) who also makes a high amount of threes (1.7 3PG). Picking James allows you to be competitive in points when punting FT% (67.4 FT%), something that is not an easy feat. Yes, LeBron is a lock to miss 6-to-8 games for rest purposes, but most players are these days. The Cavaliers’ playoff schedule makes picking The King easier as well. The Cavaliers play 11 games during the fantasy playoffs (that is an above-average playoff schedule this year) so if LeBron is rested for a game, he’ll still have an average playoff schedule. It’s worth noting that he only sat out one game during the fantasy playoffs last season.

4) Jimmy Butler (SG/SF) – Butler has been a top-15 player three seasons in a row and there’s no reason why he can’t maintain that type of production in Minnesota. Coach Thibodeau is going to play Jimmy a dangerous amount of minutes, so even with Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins taking plenty of shots, that extremely nice all-around line should still be there. However, I have two issues with Jimmy. The obvious one is his health. Butler has only played over 70 games once in his last four seasons. My second issue with Butler is that he doesn’t fit that well into any build. You could argue that he’s a good fit for punt threes (1.2 3PG),  but that’s likely not going to be your first choice when choosing your draft strategy. Jimmy is a great Roto option, but he does take a hit in H2H formats. He should continue to excel on the defensive end (1.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG) and his offensive numbers could look similar to what he produced in 2015-2016 (20.9 PPG, 4.8 APG).

5) Draymond Green (SF/PF) – Green has quickly become one of the most unique players in league history. Last season, he scored a paltry 10.2 PPG while shooting a horrendous 41.7% from the floor, yet somehow managed to finish 21st-overall in 9-category leagues. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is punt points monster and arguably a top-5 player in the punt points/FT% build (70.9 FT%). The massive FG% drop is largely due to a change in Green’s shot selection. In 2015-2016, Green took 31% of his shots from behind the arc. Last season that number jumped to just over 40%. Assuming the Warriors don’t make any major changes to their historic offense, Green’s three-point attempts will likely remain high and his FG% will be middling. Expect a small increase in his FG% as last season’s 3P% of 30.8% smells like a fluke. Draymond is also an excellent fit for the punt FG% build as he brings the rebounds (7.9 RPG) and blocks (1.4 BPG) that the build needs and reinforces the build’s strengths (7.0 APG, 2.0 SPG).

6) Paul George (SF/PF) – When you are joining a team that has a player who just shattered the all-time usage record, your fantasy value is going to take a hit. George posted a 28.9% usage rate last season, which is much higher than Victor Oladipo’s 21.4% usage rate. Something is going to have to give between Westbrook and George and I expect George to be the one to take the bigger hit. George was a top-15 player last season as the Pacers’ first-option and while a drop in value is coming, a top-25 finish is still very doable. Even if his PPG takes a hit (23.7 PPG), his threes (2.6 3PG) will still be excellent, and there’s nothing stopping George from continuing to be a force on the defensive end (1.6 SPG). If you draft George, you will also be getting a very good rebounder (6.6 RPG) and one of the better sources of FT% impact (89.8 FT% on 5.0 FTA).

7) Klay Thompson (SG/SF) – Klay is a boring third-round pick, but boring is not necessarily a bad thing. Blowing an early-round pick is usually extremely difficult to recover from. If your studs aren’t performing, you’re going to need to hit late, which is never a guarantee. With Kevin Durant in Oakland, Klay’s ceiling is capped, but he is still a very good bet to return top-30 numbers. Only his backcourt partner was deadlier from deep (3.4 3PG) and Klay is one of the most efficient three-point bombers in the league (46.8 FG%, 85.3 FT%). Thompson is also a sneaky source of out-of-position blocks (0.5 BPG). If you are punting assists, Klay is one of your primary third-round targets.

8) Robert Covington (SF/PF) – There are only a handful of players in the NBA who are better defenders than Covington. The advanced stats suggest that he is elite on that end and so does the regular box score. Over the last two months of the season, he averaged a ridiculous 2.1 SPG and 1.4 BPG. He also posted 2.6 3PG and 7.5 RPG over that stretch. What is most intriguing about Covington’s incredibly run to end the season is his improved shooting. Over the last three months of the year, he shot a serviceable 43.2% from the field. That sounds low, but for Covington, that is excellent. The Sixers’ new additions shouldn’t have a major effect on the swingman’s value. It may lower his shot attempts, but Covington has never derived much of his value from the points column.

9) Khris Middleton (SG/SF) – Middleton’s 2016-2017 campaign was remarkable. He tore his hamstring in preseason, beat his timeline by over a month, and then almost immediately became a mid-round player. Think about what he can do now that he’s fully healthy. Jabari Parker won’t return until February at the absolute earliest, so Middleton will be the clear second-option for the Bucks. The Buck is one of the best 3-and-D options available after the early rounds and was a top-30 player in 2015-2016. A second-round finish is not out of the question and it’s very possible that he matches or exceeds the 18.2 PPG, 1.8 3PG, 4.2 APG, and 1.7 SPG that he averaged two seasons ago. Middleton is also one of more underrated sources of FT% impact. In his last healthy season, he shot 88.8% from the line on 3.9 attempts a night.

10) Gordon Hayward (SG/SF) – Hayward is coming off the best season of his career. A giant jump in efficiency lead to a third-round finish. His 47.2% success rate from the field was easily his highest since he became a premier player for the Jazz. He leaves the Jazz for a much more efficient Celtics offense, but unfortunately, that also means that he is no longer the first-option on his team. Kyrie Irving hurts Hayward’s ceiling and managers should stay away from Hayward until the fourth. Drafting Hayward in the third is drafting him at his ceiling, something you always want to avoid.

11) Otto Porter (SF) – Porter is an obvious fit for the punt points and punt assists builds, but you need to be careful when targeting the Wizards’ swingman. He is a perfect example of why you shouldn’t blindly follow last year’s final rankings when creating your draft board. Porter was a top-25 player last season, but a huge amount of his value was tied to his unusually low turnover rate (0.5 TOPG). If you’ve read my analysis before, you know that I aim to be competitive in turnovers in most situations. However, drafting Porter can easily lead to overkill in the turnovers department and cause your team to be weaker than it needs to be elsewhere. For example, if you pick Kevin Durant and Myles Turner in the first two rounds and plan to punt assists or points, you do not need to draft Porter, even though he has the potential to post top-15 numbers in those builds. You’re already very likely to win turnovers most weeks due to your extremely strong start in the category and Porter isn’t going to help your team as much as his ranking suggests. However, if you punting assists with a player like DeMarcus Cousins, then go ahead and target Porter, as he’s one of the few players who can make you competitive in turnovers with Cousins on the roster. Porter’s efficiency is impressive (51.5 FG%, 83.2 FT%), but comes on low volume so he’s only a good, not great, target for those looking for percentages impact. Draft Porter if you are looking for solid three-and-D numbers (1.9 3PG, 1.5 SPG).

12) DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF) – I have the same problem with DeRozan that I do with Beal. The Raptor’s leading scorer is coming off of a season where his shooting improved significantly from almost every spot on the floor. He shot nearly 8% better from 10-16 feet last season despite increasing his volume from that distance. He had a slightly smaller increases from 16 feet to the three point as well. It’s not a lock that DeMar’s shooting regresses, but managers targeting DeRozan shouldn’t just assume that last year’s breakout season is the new normal for the Raptor. There’s talk of DeRozan improving his three-point shot this offseason (0.4 3PG on 26.6 3P%), but I’ll believe it when I see it. If you’re punting threes, DeMar is a must-grab. Punt threes teams often struggle with points and FT% and DeMar excels in both areas (27.3 PPG, 84.2 FT% on 8.7 FTA). You’ll have to find your defensive stats elsewhere though. The All-Star is still a lost cause on defense (1.0 SPG, 0.2 BPG).

13) Gary Harris (SG/SF) – Gary Harris needs to be near the top of every manager’s wishlist. He can likely be had for a sixth or even seventh-round pick, but managers shouldn’t feel like they have to wait that long to scoop up Harris. He was a top-55 player last season, and was even better down the stretch. Over the last two months of the season, the shooting guard was a top-30 option. What makes Harris special, and what gives him early-round upside, is his efficiency. The Nugget hit over half his shots last season (50.3 FG%) despite many of his attempts coming from deep (1.9 3PG). Those punting points (14.9 PPG) or assists (2.8 APG) should pay especially close attention to Harris.

14) Trevor Ariza (SG/SF) – Another year, another top-40 finish for Ariza. His age (32) is a bit of a concern, but any slippage should cancelled out by the addition of an all-time great playmaker to his team’s backcourt. At this point, you know what you’re going to get from Ariza. He provides a ton of threes (2.4 3PG), elite steals (1.8 SPG), and helps you on the boards (5.7 RPG). He is also one of the better mid-round options for those looking to keep their turnovers under control (0.9 TOPG). He has top-25 upside in the punt points build, and is also a great addition to any team punting FG% (41.0 FG%), FT%, or assists.

15) Nicolas Batum (SG/SF) – If Batum could hit a shot (40.3 FG%), he’d be a top-30 player. He is an excellent passer (5.9 APG), is reliable from deep (1.8 3PG), and is also a very good rebounder for a shooting guard (6.3 RPG). His ability to contribute positively in almost every category makes him a good fit for most builds, but besides punt FG%, he is most effective in punt FT% and punt points builds. Punt points is an obvious fit (15.1 PPG), but you need to plan carefully to fully maximize Batum in punt FT%. When you’re punting FT%, being strong in FG% is not a guarantee. You need to pair the obvious big man targets with plenty of point guards or high-assist players and that can drag down your FG% quickly. Batum is one of those players, so if you do select him, make sure that your other assist targets are reasonably efficient.

16) Aaron Gordon (SF/PF) – The Serge Ibaka trade changed everything for Gordon. He was never going to succeed at the three, but now that he’ll be playing power forward full-time, he could live up to the hype that he received prior to the 2016-2017 season. After the trade, Gordon was a top-40 player and averaged 16.4 PPG, 0.9 3PG, 6.2 RPG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.7 BPG. He could average one three, one steal, and one block this season, but it is his percentages that will determine how high up in the rankings he finishes. He shot 50.5% from the field after the trade which was much higher than his full-season mark of 45.5%. He’ll also need to improve his free-throw shooting if he wants to be a top-50 player (71.9 FT%).

17) Tobias Harris (SF/PF) – Harris won’t win you your league, but you don’t need to worry about him busting either. He may come off the bench to start the year, but that doesn’t really matter. He’s going to play around 30 MPG regardless of where he starts the game. Harris has been a top-65 player three seasons in a row and provides owners with a well-rounded line. He’s an efficient scorer (16.1 PPG on 48.1 FG%) and chips in on the boards (5.1 RPG) and from deep (1.3 3PG).

18) Danilo Gallinari (SF/PF) – Gallinari has played more than 63 games twice in his entire career. After missing the entire 2013-2014 season, Gallo has played in an averaged of 58 games per season since. That is not good. So while he is a very good per game player, this is someone you need to get a sizable discount on. In his final season with the Nuggets, he was a top-40 per game player and averaged 18.2 PPG, 2.0 3PG, and 5.1 RPG. He also had the third-largest positive impact on the FT% category in 2016-2017 (90.2 FT% on 6.1 FTA). He doesn’t do anything on the defensive end (0.7 SPG, 0.2 BPG), but he should be able to maintain his per game value in Los Angeles. He’ll be the second-option on the Clippers and would be the go-to-guy if Blake Griffin’s toe was to act up.

19) T.J. Warren (SF) – Josh Jackson looked great in summer league, but Warren should still see plenty of run and will even play beside the rookie at times. Warren is still only 24 and has plenty of upside. He was unbelievable after Eric Bledsoe was shut down last season. Over the last two months of the 2016-2017 season, he was a top-25 player and had a matchup-swinging impact on the FG% category. Over those two months, he shot a blistering 56.2% from the field. He’ll make around half his shots this season, something most mid-round wing players won’t come close to pulling off. He also hits the boards hard (7.2 RPG over the last two months of the season) and has the ability to produce plenty of out-of-position blocks (0.9 BPG over the last two months of the season). He doesn’t hit from deep (0.4 3PG), which makes him a natural fit for the punt threes build.

20) Carmelo Anthony (SF/PF) – Melo is going to have issue regardless of where he’s playing when the season starts. If he stays in New York, he’s not going to be motivated and will likely just be a mid-round player. If he’s traded to Houston, he’ll be motivated, but his role will shrink considerably. Either way, it’s hard to picture Anthony ever returning to early-round value. He can still help you win points (22.4 PPG) and threes (2.0 3PG), but he is no longer a top-tier rebounder for his position (5.9 RPG) and provides owners with nothing on the defensive end (0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG).

21) Thaddeus Young (SF/PF) – Young should have a pretty sizable role for the rebuilding Pacers, but that could change as the season goes on. Down the stretch of the season, the Pacers will likely want to see what they have in Domantas Sabonis and T.J. Leaf, and that, combined with the Pacers’ poor playoff schedule, makes Young someone you’ll want to try to move around the trade deadline. Thad is a great option for those who went light on steals early in the draft. Few power forwards offer as much in steals category as Young (1.5 SPG). He’s can also help keep you competitive in FG% (52.6 FG%), but will drag down your assists (1.6 APG) and blocks (0.4 BPG).

22) Jae Crowder (SF/PF) – Crowder’s role with his new team is unclear, but even if he does come off the bench behind LeBron James and Kevin Love, he should still play enough minutes to post mid-round value. If Isaiah Thomas was to miss an extended amount of time, which looks very possible right now, Crowder would be the third-best player on the Cavaliers’ roster. Tyronn Lue will find a fair amount of playing time for his third-best player. His ceiling is lower due to the move to Cleveland, but he should still be potent from deep (2.2 3PG) and help you out on the boards (5.8 RPG). There’s also a good chance that his steals rate jumps this season. Last season, he only averaged 1.0 SPG and produced 1.1 SP36. For his career, Crowder produces 1.6 SP36 and is only a year removed from averaging 1.7 SPG. Expect his steals to normalize, which should help offset any dip in his scoring average caused by his new role.

23) Markieff Morris (SF/PF) – Markieff is coming off a year that sums up his career well. He was god-awful until about halfway through January and then was a top-55 player after that. Morris gives you a little bit of everything and provides owners with some out-of-position threes (0.9 3PG) and steals (1.1 SPG). His FT% is hard to predict. Last season, Morris shot 83.7% from the line. That was over a 10% increase from his 2015-2016 connection rate (73.5%). Markieff is only a 77.4% shooter from the charity stripe for his career so it’s not a lock that he cracks the 80% mark in 2017-2018.

24) Marvin Williams (SF/PF) – Marvin was droppable for the first two months of the season, but turned it around in a big way after the New Year. He was a top-45 player over the last two months of the season and finished just outside of the second round over that time period if points were ignored. Dwight Howard’s arrival complicates things. Last season Frank Kaminsky saw time at both frontcourt positions. With Cody Zeller and Howard at center, he and Marvin will likely be stuck competing for the 48 minutes available at power forward. It’s possible that Williams sees a slight decrease in playing time this season which could hurt his always solid threes (1.6 3PG), boards (6.5 RPG), and blocks (0.7 BPG).

25) James Johnson (SF/PF) – It’s going to be difficult for Johnson to continue to be the top-60 player that he was over the second half of the season. Justise Winslow is back and the Heat signed Kelly Olynyk in the offseason. Both could possibly play minutes at the four and it’s not a lock that Johnson sees the 27.4 MPG that he did in 2016-2017. However, there is talk of Johnson starting, and he should play enough minutes to be worth a pick within the top-100. One of last season’s best sixth men is a Swiss Army knife. He averaged over a three (1.1 3PG), steal (1.0 SPG), and block (1.1 BPG) last season and is also a fairly good playmaker (3.5 APG). He also helps out on the boards (5.0 RPG) and gets his points in an efficient manner (47.9 FG%). It’s all about minutes with Johnson. You’ll want to watch the Heat’s rotation closely in preseason.

26) Nikola Mirotic (SF/PF) – Mirotic is in negotiations with the Bulls and is expected to return to Chicago. Returning to the Bulls is the best case scenario for Mirotic as the team’s roster has been gutted and will be desperate for his offense and shooting. He’ll be competing with the forgettable Bobby Portis and rookie Lauri Markkanen so there’s a good chance that he’s the Bulls starting power forward this season. Yes, he is absolutely maddening to own, but this late in the draft, your priority should be upside and Mirotic is oozing it. The stretch four showed what he could do over the last month of the season. In the Bulls’ final 16 contest he averaged a blistering 15.8 PPG, 3.1 3PG, 6.8 RPG, 0.8 SPG, and 0.9 BPG. Those numbers placed him in the top-30 over that period.

27) Andre Iguodala (SG/SF) – Players like Iguodala are why I love the punt points build so much. That build puts so many more options in play and allows you to scoop up useful players with little competition. You probably could have grabbed Iguodala off the wire last season. If you did that, and were punting points, then you got a top-60 player for free. He was even better when it counted and was posting top-40 numbers without points during the fantasy playoffs. You’ll likely be able to wait until the end of the draft to grab Iguodala, but if you’re punting points, feel free to reach for him a round or two early.

28) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (SF) –  The Hornet finally does enough on the defensive end to warrant consideration at the back-end of the middle rounds. He’s always been a very good defender, but it never translated into flashy boxscore numbers. That changed last season. Kidd-Gilchrist averaged 1.0 SPG and 0.9 BPG and that led to a top-85 finish on the year. His lack of three-ball (0.0 3PG) keeps his FG% high (47.8 FG%). Expect his very strong rebounding rate to take a bit of hit (7.0 RPG) now that Dwight Howard is manning the paint for the Hornets.

29) Terrence Ross (SG/SF) – Ross’ role with the Magic was much larger than it was with the Raptors and the increased opportunity lead to a top-90 performance after the All-Star break. The swingman doesn’t contribute in enough categories to be more than a mid-round player, but if you’re in need of threes and defensive stats, you could do worse. After the All-Star break, Ross averaged 1.9 3PG, 1.4 SPG, and 0.5 BPG.

30) Taurean Prince (SF) – Prince is going to be on most sleeper lists, including mine, but I wouldn’t reach too high for the sophomore. He’s going to have a major role for the rebuilding Hawks, but outside of threes (1.2 3P36), steals (1.6 SP36), and blocks (1.0 BP36), I’m not sure he’s going to be that useful. His scoring will be in the low double-digits (12.3 PP36) and he’s a surprisingly mediocre rebounder given his size (5.7 RP36). He’s also very likely going to struggle shooting the ball (39.9 FG%) and won’t be racking up assists (1.9 AP36). I do like Prince, but don’t go blowing a seventh-round pick on the Hawk.

31) Harrison Barnes (SF/PF) – Barnes had a strong start to the 2016-2017 schedule, but faded as the season went on and Dirk Nowtizki returned to full strength. The Maverick finished as a top-75 player on the year, but was barely a top-125 player after the All-Star break. His lack of defensive stats (0.8 SPG, 0.2 BPG) keeps his ceiling his low, as does his weak playmaking ability (1.5 APG). Ignore Barnes at his current top-65 price. There are much better options available at that point in the draft.

32) Andrew Wiggins (SG/SF) – Let’s take a look at Wiggins’ 2016-2017 line:

23.6 PPG, 1.3 3PG, 4.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 45.2 FG%, 76.0 FT%, 2.3 TOPG

Now take your hand and cover his scoring average. You’ll notice that there is almost nothing else to like in that line. His three-point shooting might look impressive, but 1.3 3PG is now very average. Wiggins hasn’t provided above-average value in any non-points category the past two years. That is an impressive feat for someone who is among the league leaders in minutes played. Given Wiggins’ need to score to be relevant in fantasy circles, the arrival of Jimmy Butler is a very bad thing. Wiggins has yet to post top-100 numbers for a season and there’s a good chance that his streak continues in 2017-2018. He is laughably overpriced at his current mid-round ADP.

33) Joe Ingles (SG/SF) – Ingles is the biggest beneficiary of Gordon Hayward’s departure and needs to be on everyone’s sleeper list. If you are punting points, this man needs to find a way onto your team. Without points, Ingles has top-70 potential. His numbers as a starter last season were very good. The Australian produced 2.0 3PG, 1.5 SPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.4 APG in the games he started. As a bonus, Ingles is very sturdy. He’s only missed four games in his career.

34) Evan Fournier (SG/SF) – You’ll notice that many of the upcoming players are players who have been very good fantasy options in the past but have fallen on hard times as of late. At this point in the draft, it doesn’t matter if the player that you pick busts. There will be plenty of quality free agents available early in the season to replace those players. So swing for the fences and don’t settle for a player with a top-135 floor and a top-110 ceiling. Fournier followed up his top-70 2015-2016 by falling on his face. He was only a top-125 player last season despite taking on a larger role on offense. The Magic signed Jonathon Simmons this offseason, but Fournier should still have a major role as the team is absolutely starved for scoring. Only the Sixers were worse than the Magic on offense last season. The swingman should be a quality source of points (16.9 PPG) and threes (1.9 3PG), and if his efficiency returns to 2015-2016 levels (46.2 FG%, 83.6 FT%), he’ll likely be a top-100 player.

35) Rudy Gay (SF/PF) – A torn Achilles has replaced the torn ACL as the most dreaded injury in basketball. We’re still waiting for a major player to have a successful return from a torn Achilles. When Kobe went down, it ended his ability to be a productive NBA player. Brandon Jennings went from being a starting point guard to a journeyman bench player. Wes Matthews looks like a shell of his former self in Dallas. If Gay comes back and an even approaches the level of play that he showed last season, he will be the exception, not the rule. Expect the Spurs to handle Gay with kid gloves and he won’t come close to repeating last season’s top-35 per game finish. He should continue to be useful on the defensive end (1.5 SPG, 0.9 BPG), but expect a major drop-off on offense.

36) Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (SF/PF) – Hollis-Jefferson has the ability to do what Michael Kidd-Gilchrist did last year. Both players couldn’t hit a three if you doubled the size of the net. They are also both very good rebounders who can post some impressive defensive numbers. RHJ got better as the season went on and averaged 7.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG, and 0.6 BPG over the last two months of the season. Despite not living up to the hype last season, there’s some serious upside here, especially in the punt points build (8.7 PPG). He’ll start at the four for the Nets which should keep his boards high and allow him to pick on the bigger, slower power forwards.

37) Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG/SF) – How you value Hardaway depends on what you think the Knicks will do with Carmelo Anthony. Hardaway’s value is very dependent on his scoring numbers and obviously Carmelo’s presence is going to have a very large impact on Hardaway’s PPG. If Melo is moved, a top-100, even top-85 finish, is very possible. If he’s not, then Hardaway’s floor gets a little scary. He’s a risky player given his lack of statistical diversity. If you do draft Hardaway, you’ll be doing it for his scoring (17.5 PPG over the last two months of the season) and threes (2.1 3PG over the last two months of the season).

38) Chandler Parsons (SF/PF) – It’s more likely than not that Parsons struggles this season. He was terrible from start to finish in 2016-2017 and showed no signs of turning it around at any point. But at this point in the draft, there are no sure things and there’s also not many players available who have top-60 upside like Parsons does. He is apparently healthy and the Grizzlies are lacking in offensive threats so the opportunity should be there. He was a top-80 player two seasons ago and averaged 13.7 PPG, 1.7 3PG, 4.7 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 0.8 SPG.

39) Ben Simmons (SF/PF) – With all the excitement surrounding Joel Embiid and Markelle Fultz, it’s easy to forget that Simmons is an elite prospect himself. He should be very good in the long run, but how he fares in his rookie year will come down to whether or not he can score efficiently. His jumper is a major question mark and that will make it difficult for him to find the same success from the field that he did in college (56.0 FG%). He will also run the offense on some possessions and that could make turnovers an issue. Managers punting FT% should be very tempted by Simmons. He was a poor free-throw shooter in college (67.0 FT%), so you’re not losing any value there. He is also one of the best passing big men to come out of the draft in years and should be an excellent source of out-of-position dimes (4.8 APG). Those who are not punting FT% need to be wary of Simmons. He could be a sizable drag on the FT% category as his poor connection rate also came with a high draw rate (9.0 FTA) in his lone season at LSU.

40) Wilson Chandler (SF/PF) – Chandler posted top-95 numbers last season, but the arrival of Paul Millsap complicates things. Chandler saw a lot of his minutes come at the four last season and those minutes likely won’t be there now that the Nuggets have an All-Star at the position. A small drop in playing time makes another top-100 finish unlikely. Chandler’s upside isn’t as high as usual this year, but he should still help owners’ points (15.7 PPG), threes (1.5 3PG), boards (6.5 RPG), and blocks (0.5 BPG).

41) Rodney Hood (SG/SF) – The Jazz will look to Hood to make up much of the scoring that they lost when Gordon Hayward left for Boston. Expect both his minutes (27.0 MPG) and shot attempts (11.3 FGA) to increase. Hood was barely a top-200 player last season, but he did crack the top-95 in 2015-2016 when he played 32.2 MPG. He can be a top-100 player due to his scoring (16.9 PP36) and threes (2.6 3P36), but his lack of defensive stats (0.9 SP36, 0.2 BP36), keep his ceiling out of the middle-rounds.

42) Josh Richardson (SF) – Richardson was a popular sleeper last season who didn’t quite work out. He missed 29 games and was disappointing when he did step on the court. He’s in a similar position to Tyler Johnson and James Johnson. He’s talented, but minutes could be an issue. His top-85 ranking over the last two months of the season is a little deceptive. He continued to struggle until the last eight games of the season, when all of a sudden he began posting top-20 value. You can’t get too excited about Richardson, because that is such a small sample size. However, that stretch does make him worthy of your consideration late in drafts. If he can carve out close to 30 MPG this season, he has a chance to join the one three (1.4 3PG), one steal (1.2 SPG), and one block (0.8 BPG) club.

43) Danny Green (SG/SF) – Green’s value is very build-dependent. Last season, he was a borderline top-80 option in punt points. If you weren’t punting points, he was only a top-120 option. His threes (1.7 3PG), steals (1.1 SPG), and out-of-position blocks (0.8 BPG), keep his floor high, but his days of having a mid-round ceiling appear over. The Spurs didn’t add anything to their backcourt this season so Green’s minutes are safe.

44) Kent Bazemore (SG/SF) – Bazemore didn’t come close to matching his 2015-2016 top-75 finish last season. He experienced a major drop in his rebounding rate (3.1 RPG) and saw his efficiency plummet (40.8 FG%, 70.8 FT%). His rebounding should improve with Dwight Howard in Charlotte, but his percentages are harder to predict. The Hawks will be lacking quality offensive options next season which will make it hard for Bazemore to score efficiently. He’s also only had one season in the league where he shot better than 71% from the charity stripe. Expect very good defensive stats from Bazemore (1.3 SPG, 0.7 BPG) to go along with respectable triples (1.3 3PG).

45) Norman Powell (SG/SF) – It looks like this is the year that Powell finally gets the minutes that he’s long deserved. He’ll battle C.J. Miles for the Raptors’ starting small forward spot and should see plenty of run regardless of where he starts the game. Powell is already a very good player, but if he’s going to make an impact on the fantasy scene, he’s going to have to improve his per minute production. He was only a top-200 per minute player last season and produced mediocre numbers in the categories that he’s going to have to excel in in order to crack the top-100 (1.5 3P36, 1.3 SP36, 0.4 BP36). For now, he’s only a late-round flier.

46) Moe Harkless (SF) – Harkless made a major jump last season and looks like a solid rotation player. He’s still only 24-years-old and likely hasn’t reached his ceiling. Harkless cracked the top-100 last season, and with Allen Crabbe’s minutes up for grabs, a repeat performance is very possible. He’s an especially good option in punt assists build (1.2 APG). When punting assists, you’ll usually be looking to be strong from the field and in the defensive categories. Harkless provides decent value in all three categories (1.1 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 50.2 FG%). He’s also improved from deep (0.9 3PG) and will help keep your turnovers (0.9 TOPG) low. Watch out for his poor free-throw shooting (62.1 FT%).

47) Andre Roberson (SG/SF) – Roberson was probably on-and-off your waiver wire all season long last year. His lack of scoring (6.6 PPG) scares off managers who place too much value on the points category. He’s never going to be a scorer, but he can be a very effective asset in the right situation. If you ignored points last season, he was a top-100 player. If you punted both points and FT%, he was a top-60 option. I strongly prefer Roberson in the double-punt over just a regular punt points build. The FT% hit that accompanies Roberson is significant (42.3 FT%). Despite only averaging 1.4 FTA, only one wing player had a larger negative effect on the category. That was LeBron James who got to the line an average of 7.2 times a night. The arrival of Paul George shouldn’t have a significant impact on Roberson’s outlook as almost all of his value comes on the defensive end (1.2 SPG, 1.0 BPG) and on the boards (5.1 RPG).

48) Brandon Ingram (SG/SF) – Ingram was a disappointment as a rookie both on the court and in fantasy. His efficiency was horrendous (40.2 FG%, 62.1 FT%) and he couldn’t get anything going on the defensive end either (0.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG). He’s got a long way to go. Fortunately, at his current 11th-round price, the risk is minimal. He’s still an elite prospect whose college numbers suggest will be a very good fantasy asset one day. I’m rather gamble on Ingram than someone like Courtney Lee who may have a higher floor, but whose ceiling is very low.

49) Will Barton (SG/SF) – Danilo Gallinari’s move to Los Angeles opens up some minutes for Barton and he’ll be worth a look late on draft day. Barton slipped last season, but was a still a top-120 option who helped owners in the points (13.7 PPG) and threes (1.5 3PG) columns. He can also be a sneaky source of blocks (0.5 BPG) and assists (3.4 APG). Barton will need to improve his swipes (0.8 SPG) to crack the top-100 this season.

50) J.R. Smith (SG/SF) – The normally reliable Smith is coming off of a lost season. He missed almost all of training camp and preseason and then sat out 41 games, mostly due to a fractured thumb. Before last season, the three-point bomber had been a top-100 player in both of his seasons with the Cavaliers. With Isaiah Thomas looking like he’ll miss time, Smith should see a few more touches and could find himself within the top-100 once again. Like most of the wings available this late, most of Smith’s value is going to come from threes (2.3 3PG) and steals (1.0 SPG). His FG% was laughably bad last season (34.6 FG%), but last season was first time since the 2005-2006 season that Smith failed to break 40%. He’s a lock to improve to improve his shooting. How much he does will determine how high he rises in the rankings.

51) Wes Matthews (SG/SF) – So far, no notable player has been able to overcome a torn Achilles. Matthews’ hasn’t been able to get back to his pre-injury efficiency levels (39.3 FG%) and that has tanked his value. He really struggled down the stretch of last season and even his triples output faltered (1.6 3PG over the last two months of the season). Matthews will compete with Seth Curry for playing time and if he continues to struggle, Curry could surpass him for good.

52) Tyreke Evans (SG/SF) – Ben McLemore is going to miss the start of the season and that will give Evans an opportunity to get off to a hot start. Even when McLemore returns, Evans will be, at worst, the team’s sixth man. This is a good landing spot for Evans, the only question is, and it’s a big one, is whether or not he can stay healthy for a full NBA season. Evans has only played 65 games in total the past two seasons. The Kings even limited his minutes last year and it didn’t help. If Tyreke can finally stay healthy, he can post some flashy popcorn stats. His 2015-2016 per game numbers were excellent and give you an idea of what he can do when he’s feeling good (15.2 PPG, 1.3 3PG, 5.2 RPG, 6.6 APG, 1.3 SPG).